Power Comparison
Matchup Edges
Market
The Call
Pittsburgh -2.5 at 1.78 with SportsBet remains a LEAN, with the model's 7.9-point gap attached to that exact offer. The Steelers' strongest matchup areas are runs behind left guard and through the middle, giving their offence a route to stay ahead of the chains. This is at neutral Stade de France, so the projection carries no venue advantage. Under 44.5 at 1.88 with Dabble AU is also a LEAN; both directions remain analysis only under the existing rules.
The final reports are more useful than the earlier practice snapshot. T.J. Watt has no designation, and Pittsburgh activated DeShon Elliott, although Sebastian Joseph-Day is on injured reserve and Brandin Echols is out. Tyler Shough and Alvin Kamara have no game designation; Cesar Ruiz remains questionable, which matters for interior protection. Those personnel changes inform the matchup discussion without adding points to the historical model. Final inactives remain pending.
Availability check
Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending
Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers · expected starter
Aaron Rodgers remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Ben Skowronek and Brandin Echols are out; Sebastian Joseph-Day went to injured reserve. T.J. Watt has no final designation after his calf listing. DeShon Elliott was activated from injured reserve Saturday, restoring a safety option. The losses reduce receiving and defensive depth, while Watt's availability is important to pressure on Shough. Friday's practice report was estimated after travel.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough · expected starter
Tyler Shough remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Tyler Shough practised fully and has no game designation. Alvin Kamara and Kaden Elliss also have no designation. Cesar Ruiz and Nathan Shepherd are questionable. Ruiz's status matters for interior protection in Paris, while Shepherd's availability affects defensive-line rotation. The full inactive list is still pending.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-23
Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.
Situational
| Shell | NO usage | PIT EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 40% (228 snaps) | -0.00 (149 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (93 snaps) | +0.04 (128 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (86 snaps) | +0.09 (152 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (52 snaps) | -0.02 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 8% (47 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
| Shell | PIT usage | NO EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (200 snaps) | -0.11 (192 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (165 snaps) | -0.02 (100 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (144 snaps) | +0.06 (161 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (64 snaps) | -0.06 (104 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (48 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
Published Model Results
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
| Coverage | Spreads | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 6–3–1 | 7–3–0 |
| Season to W6 | 37–34–4 | 41–32–2 |
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
Results source and coverageTracked Bets
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