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NFL 2026 · Week 7
Away
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Designated home
NO
New Orleans Saints
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 12:30am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 9:30am ET
Venue
Stade de France
Neutral venue
Spread
NO +3.25
Total
44.5
PIT ML
$1.57
NO ML
$2.50
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am

Power Comparison

PITRating +5.3
Off EPA/play
+0.093
Def EPA/play
-0.004
Exp points
23.1
Offence by zone
-.13
+.07
-.38
-.29
+.41
+.04
-.03
+.26
-.18
+.27
-.07
+.08
-.01
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.03
-.29
+.14
-.03
-.01
-.37
+.28
-.01
-.03
+.04
+.05
+.05
-.26
NORating -5.2
Off EPA/play
-0.024
Def EPA/play
+0.071
Exp points
12.8
Offence by zone
-.32
-.10
+.20
+.12
-.03
-.33
-.17
-.23
-.14
-.00
+.06
+.06
-.08
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.49
+.02
+.14
-.24
-.17
-.05
+.11
+.36
-.08
+.07
-.05
+.29
+.14
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

PIT offence vs NO
runs behind left guard
+0.62 EPA/play
PIT offence vs NO
inside runs
+0.34 EPA/play
PIT offence vs NO
short-middle passing
+0.24 EPA/play

Market

Spread (NO)
Open +3.5 → Now +3.5·Move 0.0
AU best
NO +3.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
PIT -3 @ $1.90 TAB
Global best
NO +3.5 @ $1.90 Dabble AU
Total
Open 44.0 → Now 44.5·Move +0.5
AU best over
Over 44.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
AU best under
Under 44.5 @ $1.91 SportsBet
Global best over
Over 44.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
AU best PIT ML
$1.57 Neds
AU best NO ML
$2.50 Betr
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots

The Call

Lean: PIT -3
Model NO -10.4 · total 35.9
Spread · Analysis
PIT -3
$1.90 TAB
Edge +7.4LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 44.5
$1.91 SportsBet
Edge +8.6LEAN

Pittsburgh -3 at TAB, priced at 1.90, carries a 7.4-point model gap but remains LEAN because away selections are analysis only. At neutral Stade de France, Pittsburgh's stronger offensive and defensive profiles produce the clearer forecast. Runs behind left guard and through the middle stand out, alongside shorter throws through the middle for Aaron Rodgers. That offers several ways to sustain possessions without relying on repeated deep completions.

New Orleans has a protection concern with Cesar Ruiz absent from Wednesday practice. Tyler Shough participated fully with his left hand listed, while Alvin Kamara and Kaden Elliss were limited. Pittsburgh also has defensive uncertainty: Jalen Ramsey and Brandin Echols missed practice, and Alex Highsmith was limited. Those provisional reports could affect how reliably the Steelers contain the Saints, but no extra injury adjustment is included. Under 44.5 at SportsBet, priced at 1.91, is a separate LEAN. Neither direction qualifies as a formal recommendation under the existing rules.

Why · PIT runs behind left guard (+0.62 EPA/play vs NO)

Situational

2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
PIT · 526 dropbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.23 (415 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.71 (111 snaps)
Pressure rate faced21%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NO defence: pressure 28% · blitz 34%
NO · 356 dropbacks
Tyler Shough
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.20 (267 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.70 (89 snaps)
Pressure rate faced25%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)5%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
PIT defence: pressure 30% · blitz 26%
PIT offence vs NO coverage
ShellNO usagePIT EPA/dbLeague
Cover 340% (228 snaps)-0.00 (149 snaps)+0.06
Cover 117% (93 snaps)+0.04 (128 snaps)+0.06
Cover 215% (86 snaps)+0.09 (152 snaps)0.00
Cover 49% (52 snaps)-0.02 (54 snaps)+0.07
Cover 68% (47 snaps)—-0.03
NO man coverage 22% · PIT vs man +0.03, vs zone +0.04
NO offence vs PIT coverage
ShellPIT usageNO EPA/dbLeague
Cover 329% (200 snaps)-0.11 (192 snaps)+0.06
Cover 124% (165 snaps)-0.02 (100 snaps)+0.06
Cover 221% (144 snaps)+0.06 (161 snaps)0.00
Cover 49% (64 snaps)-0.06 (104 snaps)+0.07
2-Man7% (48 snaps)—+0.07
PIT man coverage 35% · NO vs man -0.12, vs zone -0.03
PIT tendencies
Play action rate17% · +0.27 vs -0.22 EPA (44 snaps)
RPO rate10% (36 snaps)
Screen rate13% (33 snaps)
Personnel11 49%, 12 33%, 13 14%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 26% / 35%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.01 (56 snaps) · neutral -0.14 (71 snaps)
NO tendencies
Play action rate16% · +0.22 vs -0.06 EPA (42 snaps)
RPO rate4% (14 snaps)
Screen rate4% (10 snaps)
Personnel11 75%, 12 16%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 34% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.08 (68 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (73 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2