NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
SEA
Seattle Seahawks
@
Home
ARI
Arizona Cardinals
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 4:25pm ET
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Spread
ARI +4
Total
41.0
SEA ML
$1.51
ARI ML
$2.75
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
SEARating +7.0
Off EPA/play
+0.124
Def EPA/play
-0.004
Exp points
25.9
Offence by zone
-.16
-.10
+.31
+.15
+.03
+.18
+.05
-.08
+.09
-.11
-.13
+.12
-.07
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.07
+.05
-.23
+.07
-.41
-.17
+.05
-.05
+.06
-.12
-.02
-.05
+.03
ARIRating -2.7
Off EPA/play
+0.071
Def EPA/play
+0.120
Exp points
17.7
Offence by zone
-.05
+.07
-.07
+.16
-.21
+.06
+.03
-.04
-.06
-.08
-.07
+.01
-.18
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.04
+.04
-.12
-.04
+.19
+.20
-.07
-.01
-.13
+.03
-.06
+.00
+.10
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
SEA offence vs ARI
short-right passing
+0.39 EPA/play
ARI offence vs SEA
short-left passing
+0.23 EPA/play
SEA offence vs ARI
short-middle passing
+0.22 EPA/play
Market
Spread (ARI)
Open +4.5 → Now +4·Move -0.5
AU best
ARI +5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)
SEA -3.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
ARI +5 @ $1.90 TAB
Total
Open 41.5 → Now 41.0·Move -0.5
AU best over
Over 40.5 @ $1.85 TAB
AU best under
Under 41.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best over
Over 28.5 @ $1.11 Courtside
AU best SEA ML
$1.51 Bet Right
AU best ARI ML
$2.75 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: SEA -3.5
Model ARI -8.2 · total 43.7Spread · Analysis
SEA -3.5
$1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +3.2EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 40.5
$1.85 TAB
Edge +3.2PASS
The model prices Seattle as 8.2 points better than Arizona on a neutral field, well clear of Arizona's home line, but the market's best Australian price on the primary spread, Seattle -3.5 at PointsBet, is only 3.2 points off the model's number. That gap is short of the Lean floor, so this stays analysis, not a tip. The model's season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 1. On 2025 season charting, Seattle's offence averaged 0.085 EPA per play against Arizona's Cover 3 shell, above the league mark of 0.056 against that look, which supports the lean without meeting the bar.
The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample at just 1,830 plays still mostly outweighed by that blend. Both markets sit inside the weeks 1-to-5 window, where only a 10-point-or-greater edge clears the higher early-season bar.
Why · SEA short-right passing (+0.39 EPA/play vs ARI, ARI's weakest zone)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
SEA · 502 dropbacks
Sam Darnold
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.37 (363 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (139 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ARI defence: pressure 26% · blitz 28%
ARI · 530 dropbacks
Jacoby Brissett
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.24 (355 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (175 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SEA defence: pressure 34% · blitz 22%
SEA offence vs ARI coverage
| Shell | ARI usage | SEA EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | +0.09 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (129 snaps) | -0.00 (100 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 17% (107 snaps) | +0.29 (85 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (83 snaps) | +0.20 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (58 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
ARI man coverage 28% · SEA vs man +0.23, vs zone +0.08
ARI offence vs SEA coverage
| Shell | SEA usage | ARI EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 2 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.00 (171 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (171 snaps) | +0.05 (219 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (122 snaps) | +0.09 (146 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 7% (48 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (48 snaps) | -0.12 (81 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 7% (46 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
SEA man coverage 28% · ARI vs man +0.08, vs zone +0.00
SEA tendencies
Play action rate25% · +0.41 vs +0.03 EPA (131 snaps)
RPO rate3% (27 snaps)
Screen rate6% (31 snaps)
Personnel11 42%, 12 28%, 21 14%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 22% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.19 (271 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (78 snaps)
ARI tendencies
Play action rate25% · +0.01 vs +0.03 EPA (184 snaps)
RPO rate3% (27 snaps)
Screen rate8% (61 snaps)
Personnel11 50%, 12 36%, 13 11%
Def pressure / blitz / man26% / 28% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.03 (251 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (157 snaps)
Model Form
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 1,830 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (week 1), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2