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NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
SEA
Seattle Seahawks
@
Home
ARI
Arizona Cardinals
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 4:25pm ET
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Spread
ARI +4
Total
41.0
SEA ML
$1.51
ARI ML
$2.75
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm

Power Comparison

SEARating +7.0
Off EPA/play
+0.124
Def EPA/play
-0.004
Exp points
25.9
Offence by zone
-.16
-.10
+.31
+.15
+.03
+.18
+.05
-.08
+.09
-.11
-.13
+.12
-.07
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.07
+.05
-.23
+.07
-.41
-.17
+.05
-.05
+.06
-.12
-.02
-.05
+.03
ARIRating -2.7
Off EPA/play
+0.071
Def EPA/play
+0.120
Exp points
17.7
Offence by zone
-.05
+.07
-.07
+.16
-.21
+.06
+.03
-.04
-.06
-.08
-.07
+.01
-.18
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.04
+.04
-.12
-.04
+.19
+.20
-.07
-.01
-.13
+.03
-.06
+.00
+.10
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

SEA offence vs ARI
short-right passing
+0.39 EPA/play
ARI offence vs SEA
short-left passing
+0.23 EPA/play
SEA offence vs ARI
short-middle passing
+0.22 EPA/play

Market

Spread (ARI)
Open +4.5 → Now +4·Move -0.5
AU best
ARI +5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)
SEA -3.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
ARI +5 @ $1.90 TAB
Total
Open 41.5 → Now 41.0·Move -0.5
AU best over
Over 40.5 @ $1.85 TAB
AU best under
Under 41.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best over
Over 28.5 @ $1.11 Courtside
AU best SEA ML
$1.51 Bet Right
AU best ARI ML
$2.75 PointsBet (AU)
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots

The Call

Edge noted / no bet: SEA -3.5
Model ARI -8.2 · total 43.7
Spread · Analysis
SEA -3.5
$1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +3.2EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 40.5
$1.85 TAB
Edge +3.2PASS

The model prices Seattle as 8.2 points better than Arizona on a neutral field, well clear of Arizona's home line, but the market's best Australian price on the primary spread, Seattle -3.5 at PointsBet, is only 3.2 points off the model's number. That gap is short of the Lean floor, so this stays analysis, not a tip. The model's season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 1. On 2025 season charting, Seattle's offence averaged 0.085 EPA per play against Arizona's Cover 3 shell, above the league mark of 0.056 against that look, which supports the lean without meeting the bar.

The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample at just 1,830 plays still mostly outweighed by that blend. Both markets sit inside the weeks 1-to-5 window, where only a 10-point-or-greater edge clears the higher early-season bar.

Why · SEA short-right passing (+0.39 EPA/play vs ARI, ARI's weakest zone)

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
SEA · 502 dropbacks
Sam Darnold
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.37 (363 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (139 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ARI defence: pressure 26% · blitz 28%
ARI · 530 dropbacks
Jacoby Brissett
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.24 (355 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.53 (175 snaps)
Pressure rate faced33%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)3%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SEA defence: pressure 34% · blitz 22%
SEA offence vs ARI coverage
ShellARI usageSEA EPA/dbLeague
Cover 326% (160 snaps)+0.09 (164 snaps)+0.06
Cover 221% (129 snaps)-0.00 (100 snaps)0.00
Cover 117% (107 snaps)+0.29 (85 snaps)+0.06
Cover 413% (83 snaps)+0.20 (61 snaps)+0.07
Cover 69% (58 snaps)—-0.03
2-Man7% (45 snaps)—+0.07
ARI man coverage 28% · SEA vs man +0.23, vs zone +0.08
ARI offence vs SEA coverage
ShellSEA usageARI EPA/dbLeague
Cover 231% (215 snaps)+0.00 (171 snaps)0.00
Cover 325% (171 snaps)+0.05 (219 snaps)+0.06
Cover 118% (122 snaps)+0.09 (146 snaps)+0.06
2-Man7% (48 snaps)—+0.07
Cover 47% (48 snaps)-0.12 (81 snaps)+0.07
Cover 67% (46 snaps)—-0.03
SEA man coverage 28% · ARI vs man +0.08, vs zone +0.00
SEA tendencies
Play action rate25% · +0.41 vs +0.03 EPA (131 snaps)
RPO rate3% (27 snaps)
Screen rate6% (31 snaps)
Personnel11 42%, 12 28%, 21 14%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 22% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.19 (271 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (78 snaps)
ARI tendencies
Play action rate25% · +0.01 vs +0.03 EPA (184 snaps)
RPO rate3% (27 snaps)
Screen rate8% (61 snaps)
Personnel11 50%, 12 36%, 13 11%
Def pressure / blitz / man26% / 28% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.03 (251 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (157 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:49 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2