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NFL 2026 · Week 6
Away
SEA
Seattle Seahawks
@
Home
DEN
Denver Broncos
Kick-off
Fri 16 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Thu 15 Oct, 8:15pm ET
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Spread
DEN +2.5
Total
40.5
SEA ML
$1.70
DEN ML
$2.25
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 12:32:15 pm

Power Comparison

SEARating -2.6
Off EPA/play
-0.042
Def EPA/play
+0.005
Exp points
13.3
Offence by zone
-.37
+.08
+.36
-.25
-.15
-.00
-.06
-.42
+.17
-.17
-.24
-.01
-.03
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.55
+.12
-.16
-.02
-.28
+.06
-.38
+.05
+.01
-.14
+.13
+.03
-.06
DENRating -3.6
Off EPA/play
-0.021
Def EPA/play
+0.044
Exp points
15.3
Offence by zone
+.13
-.02
-.17
-.12
-.25
-.12
+.02
+.06
-.24
-.07
-.07
+.13
+.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.37
-.10
-.16
-.06
+.08
-.06
+.02
-.18
+.25
+.09
+.06
-.23
-.04
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

SEA offence vs DEN
runs off left tackle
+0.42 EPA/play
SEA offence vs DEN
deep-right passing
+0.20 EPA/play
DEN offence vs SEA
runs behind right guard
+0.16 EPA/play

Market

Spread (DEN)
Open +3 → Now +2.5·Move -0.5Moved toward model
AU best
DEN +2.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
SEA -2.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
DEN +3 @ $1.80 ReBet
Total
Open 41.0 → Now 40.5·Move -0.5Moved toward model
AU best over
Over 40.5 @ $1.92 TABtouch
AU best under
Under 40.5 @ $1.96 SportsBet
Global best over
Over 40.5 @ $1.93 LowVig.ag
AU best SEA ML
$1.70 Bet Right
AU best DEN ML
$2.25 PointsBet (AU)
10 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots

The Call

No formal betting selection
Model DEN +2.0 · total 28.6
Spread · Analysis
DEN +2.5
$1.95 Dabble AU
Edge +4.5LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 40.5
$1.96 SportsBet
Edge +11.9LEAN

Seattle needs cleaner possessions after four turnovers helped undo it against San Francisco. The Seahawks have scored at least 29 in each of their last four games; Denver used late defensive takeaways to beat the Chargers.

Denver is missing Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga, with Riley Moss questionable. That depleted secondary gives Seattle an opening, especially with Jaxon Smith-Njigba carrying no game designation. Leonard Williams also has no designation. Seattle loses Drake Thomas, Chazz Surratt and Zach Charbonnet; Denver can test its linebacker depth.

Bo Nix and Sam Darnold are expected to start. Final inactives remain pending.

The saved forecast stays Denver 15.3, Seattle 13.3. It uses team history, including other quarterbacks' snaps, and does not adjust for these injuries. Seattle's recent scoring and Denver's absences make the 28.6 total difficult to trust.

At 12:32pm AEDT on 15 October, Denver +2.5 was 1.95 at Dabble AU and Under 40.5 was 1.96 at SportsBet. Both model labels remain LEAN. No formal betting selection.

Why · Editorial verdict: no formal selection. Automated LEAN labels remain model signals only.

Situational

2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
SEA · 502 dropbacks
Sam Darnold
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.37 (363 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (139 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DEN defence: pressure 35% · blitz 39%
DEN · 638 dropbacks
Bo Nix
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.26 (466 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.38 (172 snaps)
Pressure rate faced27%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SEA defence: pressure 34% · blitz —
SEA offence vs DEN coverage
ShellDEN usageSEA EPA/dbLeague
Cover 131% (215 snaps)+0.29 (85 snaps)+0.06
Cover 323% (162 snaps)+0.09 (164 snaps)+0.06
Cover 216% (112 snaps)-0.00 (100 snaps)0.00
Cover 49% (61 snaps)+0.20 (61 snaps)+0.07
2-Man7% (50 snaps)—+0.07
Cover 07% (45 snaps)—+0.10
DEN man coverage 45% · SEA vs man +0.23, vs zone +0.08
DEN offence vs SEA coverage
ShellSEA usageDEN EPA/dbLeague
Cover 231% (215 snaps)+0.06 (182 snaps)0.00
Cover 325% (171 snaps)+0.09 (205 snaps)+0.06
Cover 118% (122 snaps)+0.26 (120 snaps)+0.06
2-Man7% (48 snaps)—+0.07
Cover 47% (48 snaps)+0.11 (70 snaps)+0.07
Cover 67% (46 snaps)—-0.03
SEA man coverage 28% · DEN vs man +0.25, vs zone +0.07
SEA tendencies
Play action rate35% · +0.38 vs +0.10 EPA (44 snaps)
RPO rate3% (6 snaps)
Screen rate10% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 42%, 12 28%, 21 14%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / — / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.03 (38 snaps) · neutral -0.36 (56 snaps)
DEN tendencies
Play action rate21% · — vs -0.07 EPA (31 snaps)
RPO rate6% (14 snaps)
Screen rate9% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 65%, 12 14%, 22 8%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 39% / 45%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.01 (45 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (43 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 14 Oct 2026, 03:38 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
The saved forecast uses 2026 team history through Week 5, with zero prior-season weight and no numerical QB or injury adjustment. Naming a starter does not remove other quarterbacks from the historical sample. FTN charting covers 2026 through Week 5; participation-based pressure, coverage and personnel data cover 2025 through Week 18. LEAN labels are model signals; the editorial verdict is no formal selection. Recorded bets are separate.

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savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2