NFL 2026 · Week 3
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WAS
Washington Commanders
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
SEARating +7.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
WASRating -1.9
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
SEA offence vs WAS
deep-right passing
+0.88 EPA/play
SEA offence vs WAS
short-middle passing
+0.40 EPA/play
SEA offence vs WAS
short-right passing
+0.20 EPA/play
Market
Spread (WAS)
Open +7 → Now +7·Move 0.0
AU bestWAS +7.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best (other side)SEA -6.5 @ $1.82 Dabble AU
Global bestWAS +7.5 @ $1.90 TAB
Total
Open 40.0 → Now 40.0·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 39.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 40.5 @ $1.89 SportsBet
Global best overOver 20.5 @ $1.02 Courtside
AU best SEA ML
$1.32 Unibet
AU best WAS ML
$3.90 SportsBet
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
QB situation unresolved - no rating basis
No rating basis
SEA: 2026-09-24: Sam Darnold availability still needs confirmation for Seattle. Keep Seattle-Washington unrated until starter status and any adjustment are approved. WAS: 2026-09-24: Marcus Mariota replaces Jayden Daniels and the Washington adjustment is unresolved. Keep Seattle-Washington unrated until a numeric QB value is approved.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
QB UNRESOLVED / UNRATEDTotal · Rating withheld
Unrated
QB UNRESOLVED / UNRATEDThe quarterback situation is the story here. Seattle's Sam Darnold still needs his availability confirmed, while Washington turns to Marcus Mariota in place of Jayden Daniels, with the adjustment for that switch not yet approved. The model's margin sits at -7.2 and its total projection at 43.9, but that's context only: with no confirmed starter for either side, the model has no rating basis for this game, and both markets carry an UNRATED tag as a result.
For now, the quarterback announcements are the trigger to watch rather than the numbers. Early in the season the model would normally blend last season's rating with the market's post-offseason view of each team as an anchor, scaled by how much of the roster carried over through continuity, phasing in 2026 play-by-play as it accumulates. But that machinery needs a named starter to attach a quarterback value to, and neither team has one confirmed. Until Washington and Seattle settle their starting quarterbacks, any read on Northwest Stadium stays unrated.
Why · QB situation unresolved - no rating basis (WAS, SEA)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
SEA · 0 dropbacks
Starter not named
QB situation unresolved: no starter to profile
WAS · 0 dropbacks
Starter not named
QB situation unresolved: no starter to profile
SEA offence vs WAS coverage
| Shell | WAS usage | SEA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 25% (152 snaps) | +0.29 (85 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (147 snaps) | +0.09 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (120 snaps) | -0.00 (100 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (96 snaps) | +0.20 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
WAS man coverage 31% · SEA vs man +0.23, vs zone +0.08
WAS offence vs SEA coverage
| Shell | SEA usage | WAS EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.12 (103 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (171 snaps) | +0.08 (170 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (122 snaps) | -0.18 (156 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 7% (48 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (48 snaps) | +0.21 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 7% (46 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
SEA man coverage 28% · WAS vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.09
SEA tendencies
Play action rate25% · +0.41 vs +0.03 EPA (131 snaps)
RPO rate3% (27 snaps)
Screen rate6% (31 snaps)
Personnel11 42%, 12 28%, 21 14%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / 22% / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.19 (271 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (78 snaps)
WAS tendencies
Play action rate26% · +0.27 vs -0.04 EPA (146 snaps)
RPO rate8% (77 snaps)
Screen rate8% (46 snaps)
Personnel11 59%, 12 30%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 27% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.04 (278 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (166 snaps)
Model Form
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 3,666 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (weeks 1 to 2), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2