NFL 2026 · Week 7
Away
SF
San Francisco 49ers
@
Home
ATL
Atlanta Falcons
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Spread
ATL +2.75
Total
49.5
SF ML
$1.67
ATL ML
$2.38
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am

Power Comparison

SFRating +5.9
Off EPA/play
+0.159
Def EPA/play
+0.052
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.12
+.37
+.51
+.21
-.10
-.23
+.20
+.12
+.20
+.22
-.09
-.05
+.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.24
+.04
-.04
+.44
-.21
-.12
-.06
-.38
-.07
-.05
-.06
+.04
+.00
ATLRating -0.1
Off EPA/play
+0.065
Def EPA/play
+0.067
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.30
-.13
+.14
+.18
-.25
-.14
-.01
+.11
-.11
-.11
+.12
+.06
+.12
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.06
+.34
-.18
+.13
-.39
+.19
-.12
-.13
+.07
-.06
-.16
+.15
-.10
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

ATL offence vs SF
short-left passing
+0.62 EPA/play
SF offence vs ATL
short-left passing
+0.34 EPA/play
SF offence vs ATL
deep-middle passing
+0.70 EPA/play

Market

Spread (ATL)
Open +3.5 → Now +3·Move -0.5
AU best
ATL +3.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
SF -2.5 @ $1.85 TAB
Global best
ATL +3.5 @ $1.80 Dabble AU
Total
Open 49.5 → Now 50.0·Move +0.5
AU best over
Over 49.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best under
Under 50.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global best over
Over 49.5 @ $1.90 TAB
AU best SF ML
$1.67 PointsBet (AU)
AU best ATL ML
$2.38 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots

The Call

Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
ATL: Michael Penix Jr. remains the named starter. The existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment, so both market ratings remain withheld. This is an adjustment limitation, not an unnamed-starter claim.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED

Atlanta's quarterback Michael Penix Jr. remains the named starter, but the model cannot price the existing unsupported return adjustment. Both markets remain UNRATED. Naming Penix does not turn the mixed-quarterback team sample into a forecast specific to him. San Francisco has the stronger overall offensive profile, while Atlanta's short-left passing matchup is favourable in the historical team data. Those observations describe possible routes through the game without establishing a published rating.

Atlanta's secondary is the immediate personnel concern. A.J. Terrell has opened his return-to-practice window, but that does not confirm activation. Billy Bowman left the previous game injured and his status remains unclear. San Francisco's short-left passing route is used more often than its highlighted deep-middle opportunity, making sustained completions a more grounded focus than repeated explosive gains. The captured injury indexes did not provide current practice tables for either club. Final availability remains pending, and no new numerical injury adjustment has been applied.

Why · Michael Penix Jr. remains the named starter. The existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment, so both market ratings remain withheld. This is an adjustment limitation, not an unnamed-starter claim.

Situational

2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
SF · 298 dropbacks
Brock Purdy
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (214 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.45 (84 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ATL defence: pressure 31% · blitz 26%
ATL · 0 dropbacks
Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. remains the named starter. The existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment, so both market ratings remain withheld. This is an adjustment limitation, not an unnamed-starter claim.
SF offence vs ATL coverage
ShellATL usageSF EPA/dbLeague
Cover 128% (176 snaps)+0.05 (134 snaps)+0.06
Cover 325% (159 snaps)+0.24 (164 snaps)+0.06
Cover 216% (99 snaps)+0.13 (152 snaps)0.00
Cover 416% (99 snaps)+0.28 (64 snaps)+0.07
ATL man coverage 33% · SF vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.17
ATL offence vs SF coverage
ShellSF usageATL EPA/dbLeague
Cover 332% (201 snaps)-0.06 (154 snaps)+0.06
Cover 121% (130 snaps)-0.13 (136 snaps)+0.06
Cover 217% (110 snaps)+0.17 (140 snaps)0.00
Cover 414% (88 snaps)+0.17 (56 snaps)+0.07
Cover 69% (55 snaps)—-0.03
SF man coverage 25% · ATL vs man -0.11, vs zone +0.06
SF tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.12 vs +0.43 EPA (43 snaps)
RPO rate1% (4 snaps)
Screen rate10% (19 snaps)
Personnel11 43%, 21 37%, 12 11%, 22 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man23% / 32% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.10 (61 snaps) · neutral -0.20 (74 snaps)
ATL tendencies
Play action rate22% · +0.12 vs -0.22 EPA (42 snaps)
RPO rate2% (8 snaps)
Screen rate14% (27 snaps)
Personnel11 46%, 12 38%, 21 9%, 13 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 26% / 33%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.28 (64 snaps) · neutral +0.05 (61 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2