Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
ATL offence vs SF
short-left passing
+0.62 EPA/play
SF offence vs ATL
short-left passing
+0.34 EPA/play
SF offence vs ATL
deep-middle passing
+0.70 EPA/play
Market
Spread (ATL)
Open +3.5 → Now +2.5·Move -1.0
AU best
ATL +3 @ $1.85 Unibet
AU best (other side)
SF -2.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
ATL +3 @ $1.85 Unibet
Total
Open 49.5 → Now 50.5·Move +1.0
AU best over
Over 49.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
AU best under
Under 50.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
Global best over
Over 49.5 @ $1.95 Dabble AU
AU best SF ML
$1.70 Bet Right
AU best ATL ML
$2.25 Unibet
10 AU books · 33 total · 23 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
ATL: Michael Penix Jr. remains the named starter. The existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment, so both market ratings remain withheld. This is an adjustment limitation, not an unnamed-starter claim.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Atlanta's quarterback remains Michael Penix Jr., but the model cannot price his return with a supported adjustment, so this game stays UNRATED. That limitation survives confirmation of the starter. Neither a spread selection nor a total selection is published, and the refreshed market prices do not turn the mixed-quarterback team history into a Penix-specific forecast. The useful change is in the supporting personnel: A.J. Terrell has been activated and is expected to return without a game designation.
Terrell helps Atlanta's outside coverage, while Billy Bowman Jr. and Divine Deablo remain out and Kendal Daniels is questionable. San Francisco is missing Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr., with Christian Kirk still questionable, so Brock Purdy's receiving rotation is materially different from the historical sample. Nick Bosa's absence also reduces the visitors' edge pressure. These are football considerations rather than invented numerical adjustments. Final inactives will settle the remaining availability questions, not the model-support limitation.
Why · Michael Penix Jr. remains the named starter. The existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment, so both market ratings remain withheld. This is an adjustment limitation, not an unnamed-starter claim.
Availability check
Checked 25 Oct 2026, 04:01 pm Sydney time · Final inactives pending
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy · expected starter
Brock Purdy remains the expected starter based on current official team information. The model uses team history, not a starter-specific fit.
Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr., Nick Bosa, Luke Gifford, Garret Wallow and Marques Sigle are out. Christian Kirk, Siran Neal and Upton Stout are questionable. Trent Williams has no designation following rest. The receiver losses reduce Purdy's established targets, while Bosa's absence weakens the edge rush; these effects are discussed without inventing point adjustments.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-23
Michael Penix Jr. remains the named starter. The existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment, so both market ratings remain withheld. This is an adjustment limitation, not an unnamed-starter claim.
A.J. Terrell was activated Saturday and no longer has a game designation. Michael Jerrell moved to injured reserve; Brian Robinson, Divine Deablo and Billy Bowman Jr. are out. Kendal Daniels remains questionable. Terrell's return helps outside coverage, but the missing slot defender and defensive communicator leave different problems underneath. Beaux Collins and Cameron Williams were ruled out Saturday; Avieon Terrell remains questionable with illness added.
Official sources · Latest review evidence 2026-10-24
Injury implications are qualitative. No additional numerical injury adjustments are applied.
Situational
2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
SF · 298 dropbacks
Brock Purdy
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (214 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.45 (84 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
ATL defence: pressure 31% · blitz 26%
ATL · 0 dropbacks
Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. remains the named starter. The existing model has no supported Penix return adjustment, so both market ratings remain withheld. This is an adjustment limitation, not an unnamed-starter claim.
SF offence vs ATL coverage
Shell
ATL usage
SF EPA/db
League
Cover 1
28% (176 snaps)
+0.05 (134 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 3
25% (159 snaps)
+0.24 (164 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 2
16% (99 snaps)
+0.13 (152 snaps)
0.00
Cover 4
16% (99 snaps)
+0.28 (64 snaps)
+0.07
ATL man coverage 33% · SF vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.17
ATL offence vs SF coverage
Shell
SF usage
ATL EPA/db
League
Cover 3
32% (201 snaps)
-0.06 (154 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 1
21% (130 snaps)
-0.13 (136 snaps)
+0.06
Cover 2
17% (110 snaps)
+0.17 (140 snaps)
0.00
Cover 4
14% (88 snaps)
+0.17 (56 snaps)
+0.07
Cover 6
9% (55 snaps)
—
-0.03
SF man coverage 25% · ATL vs man -0.11, vs zone +0.06
SF tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.12 vs +0.43 EPA (43 snaps)
2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT
This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.
All rated analysis (W–L–P)
Coverage
Spreads
Totals
Week 6
6–3–1
7–3–0
Season to W6
37–34–4
41–32–2
Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.
Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return
One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.
SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 25 Oct 2026, 05:51 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.