NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
SF
San Francisco 49ers
@
Kick-off
Mon 12 Oct, 7:25am AEDT
Sun 11 Oct, 4:25pm ET
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
SFRating +6.3
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
SEARating -0.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
SF offence vs SEA
short-left passing
+0.72 EPA/play
SEA offence vs SF
short-left passing
+0.33 EPA/play
SF offence vs SEA
deep-middle passing
+0.43 EPA/play
Market
Spread (SEA)
Open -3 → Now -3·Move 0.0
AU bestSEA -2.5 @ $1.78 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)SF +3.5 @ $1.83 PointsBet (AU)
Global bestSEA -2.5 @ $1.82 DraftKings
Total
Open 47.0 → Now 46.0·Move -1.0
AU best overOver 45.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 46.5 @ $1.93 TABtouch
Global best overOver 45.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best SEA ML
$1.64 Unibet
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Lean: SF +3.5
Model SEA -5.3 · total 51.6Spread · Analysis
SF +3.5
$1.83 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +8.8LEAN
Total · Analysis
Over 45.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +6.1EDGE NOTED / NO BET
San Francisco +3.5 at PointsBet (AU), priced at 1.83, is a LEAN with an 8.8-point edge. The model projects a 5.3-point San Francisco win and includes the existing hand adjustment of 0.3 points for Brock Purdy. Short-left passing shows a +0.72 EPA per play matchup advantage against Seattle. This away-side signal remains analysis only under the model's rules. Over 45.5 at PointsBet (AU) has a 6.1-point edge and is NOTED.
Sam Darnold is the current listed Seattle starter and is absent from the injury report, clearing the previous availability hold. Nick Bosa missed Wednesday practice for San Francisco and Mike Evans was limited; Seattle listed Zach Charbonnet and Leonard Williams as limited. Practice participation does not establish final game status. The model blends 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4 with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. The current sample remains limited.
Why · SF short-left passing (+0.72 EPA/play vs SEA, SEA's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · SF Brock Purdy +0.3 pts
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
SF · 298 dropbacks
Brock Purdy
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (214 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.45 (84 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SEA defence: pressure 34% · blitz —
SEA · 502 dropbacks
Sam Darnold
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.37 (363 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.52 (139 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)4%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SF defence: pressure 23% · blitz 31%
SF offence vs SEA coverage
| Shell | SEA usage | SF EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 31% (215 snaps) | +0.13 (152 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 25% (171 snaps) | +0.24 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (122 snaps) | +0.05 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| 2-Man | 7% (48 snaps) | — | +0.07 |
| Cover 4 | 7% (48 snaps) | +0.28 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 7% (46 snaps) | +0.07 (43 snaps) | -0.03 |
SEA man coverage 28% · SF vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.17
SEA offence vs SF coverage
| Shell | SF usage | SEA EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (201 snaps) | +0.09 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (130 snaps) | +0.29 (85 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 17% (110 snaps) | -0.00 (100 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 14% (88 snaps) | +0.20 (61 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (55 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
SF man coverage 25% · SEA vs man +0.23, vs zone +0.08
SF tendencies
Play action rate24% · — vs +0.63 EPA (29 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate10% (12 snaps)
Personnel11 43%, 21 37%, 12 11%, 22 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man23% / 31% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.07 (44 snaps) · neutral +0.02 (55 snaps)
SEA tendencies
Play action rate35% · +0.38 vs +0.10 EPA (44 snaps)
RPO rate3% (6 snaps)
Screen rate10% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 42%, 12 28%, 21 14%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man34% / — / 28%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.03 (38 snaps) · neutral -0.36 (56 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 10:05 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2