NFL 2026 · Week 7
Away
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Home
CAR
Carolina Panthers
Kick-off
Mon 26 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 25 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Spread
CAR -3.25
Total
44.5
TB ML
$2.48
CAR ML
$1.61
AU consensus as of 22/10/2026, 9:43:37 am

Power Comparison

TBRating -3.3
Off EPA/play
-0.060
Def EPA/play
0.000
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
-.22
-.18
+.07
-.27
+.03
-.35
+.38
-.03
+.15
-.10
-.13
+.08
+.04
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.35
-.21
-.25
+.05
-.33
+.03
-.14
-.15
-.09
+.05
+.06
-.13
-.00
CARRating +2.4
Off EPA/play
+0.116
Def EPA/play
+0.072
Exp points
—
Offence by zone
+.01
-.08
+.38
-.11
+.44
-.07
+.12
-.01
+.19
-.04
-.12
+.05
+.10
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.30
-.28
-.40
-.11
+.01
+.12
-.11
+.16
+.05
+.07
+.02
-.06
+.05
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

TB offence vs CAR
runs off left end
+0.27 EPA/play
TB offence vs CAR
runs off left tackle
+0.21 EPA/play
CAR offence vs TB
short-middle passing
+0.12 EPA/play

Market

Spread (CAR)
Open -3 → Now -3·Move 0.0
AU best
CAR -3 @ $1.91 Unibet
AU best (other side)
TB +3.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
CAR -3 @ $1.92 LowVig.ag
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 44.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 44.5 @ $1.90 SportsBet
AU best under
Under 45.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global best over
Over 44.5 @ $1.93 Courtside
AU best TB ML
$2.48 Unibet
AU best CAR ML
$1.61 SportsBet
10 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots

The Call

Rating withheld - QB availability unresolved
No rating basis
TB: Baker Mayfield practised fully after his right-thumb injury, but Tampa Bay has not decided whether he or Jalon Daniels will start. Both market ratings remain withheld while that return decision is unresolved.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
RATING WITHHELD / UNRATED

Tampa Bay's quarterback decision remains unresolved between Baker Mayfield and Jalon Daniels, leaving no rating basis for either market. Mayfield practised fully after his right-thumb injury, but Todd Bowles wants to assess how the hand responds before choosing a starter. The model cannot price that unresolved return, and both markets remain UNRATED. Full participation on one day is not confirmation that Mayfield will start.

Carolina's stronger offensive team profile includes a useful short-middle passing route for Bryce Young, who was estimated as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough. Tampa Bay's historical rushing matchups are more favourable toward the left edge, but Bucky Irving and Luke Goedeke missed practice. Emeka Egbuka was also absent, potentially reducing the support around either quarterback. Carolina had Jaelan Phillips and Thomas Incoom listed as non-participants, which could affect its pressure options. These provisional reports provide context without a numerical adjustment or a published game projection.

Why · Baker Mayfield practised fully after his right-thumb injury, but Tampa Bay has not decided whether he or Jalon Daniels will start. Both market ratings remain withheld while that return decision is unresolved.

Situational

2026 through week 6 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
TB · 0 dropbacks
Baker Mayfield / Jalon Daniels
Baker Mayfield practised fully after his right-thumb injury, but Tampa Bay has not decided whether he or Jalon Daniels will start. Both market ratings remain withheld while that return decision is unresolved.
CAR · 506 dropbacks
Bryce Young
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.13 (353 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.44 (153 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate2%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
TB defence: pressure 35% · blitz 42%
TB offence vs CAR coverage
ShellCAR usageTB EPA/dbLeague
Cover 333% (187 snaps)+0.05 (168 snaps)+0.06
Cover 222% (123 snaps)+0.20 (153 snaps)0.00
Cover 119% (104 snaps)+0.01 (162 snaps)+0.06
Cover 414% (78 snaps)-0.29 (65 snaps)+0.07
CAR man coverage 22% · TB vs man -0.01, vs zone +0.06
CAR offence vs TB coverage
ShellTB usageCAR EPA/dbLeague
Cover 332% (203 snaps)-0.07 (163 snaps)+0.06
Cover 221% (137 snaps)+0.07 (125 snaps)0.00
Cover 118% (113 snaps)+0.01 (134 snaps)+0.06
Cover 411% (71 snaps)+0.16 (77 snaps)+0.07
2-Man7% (45 snaps)—+0.07
TB man coverage 29% · CAR vs man -0.12, vs zone +0.00
TB tendencies
Play action rate21% · -0.34 vs -0.14 EPA (50 snaps)
RPO rate5% (19 snaps)
Screen rate8% (19 snaps)
Personnel11 70%, 12 21%, 21 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 42% / 29%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.01 (48 snaps) · neutral -0.31 (50 snaps)
CAR tendencies
Play action rate26% · +0.15 vs +0.22 EPA (56 snaps)
RPO rate11% (38 snaps)
Screen rate5% (10 snaps)
Personnel11 67%, 12 21%, 13 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man22% / 37% / 22%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.08 (57 snaps) · neutral -0.20 (51 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 6 · last updated 22 Oct 2026, 09:48 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 10,984 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 6. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 6; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.

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savvyplays.comPublished 21/10/2026V3.2