NFL 2026 · Week 5
Away
TB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Kick-off
Fri 9 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Thu 8 Oct, 8:15pm ET
AU consensus as of 08/10/2026, 9:50:26 pm
Power Comparison
TBRating -1.6
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
DALRating -1.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
TB offence vs DAL
short-middle passing
+0.47 EPA/play
DAL offence vs TB
short-left passing
+0.27 EPA/play
TB offence vs DAL
short-left passing
+0.27 EPA/play
Market
Spread (DAL)
Open -8.5 → Now -8.5·Move 0.0
AU bestDAL -8 @ $1.93 PlayUp
AU best (other side)TB +9.5 @ $1.92 Dabble AU
Global bestDAL -7.5 @ $1.91 BetAnything
Total
Open 47.5 → Now 48.0·Move +0.5Moved toward model
AU best overOver 47.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best underUnder 48.5 @ $1.86 SportsBet
Global best overOver 47.5 @ $1.91 ReBet
AU best TB ML
$4.80 Unibet
AU best DAL ML
$1.24 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 10 snapshots
The Call
Rating withheld - QB adjustment unavailable
No rating basis
TB: Confirmed starter: Jalon Daniels. Baker Mayfield is out because of a right-thumb injury. The model has no supported Daniels-for-Mayfield adjustment; both markets are unrated.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
Tampa Bay's confirmed starting quarterback is Jalon Daniels, with Baker Mayfield out because of a right-thumb injury. The model cannot price that change because a supported Daniels-for-Mayfield adjustment is unavailable, so both markets are unrated. Dallas is missing DeMarvion Overshown, Cobie Durant and Drew Shelton, with Tyler Smith and Jonathan Mingo questionable. Tampa Bay is also without Antoine Winfield Jr., Benjamin Morrison and SirVocea Dennis.
Dallas has a short-left passing matchup advantage of +0.27 EPA per play in the team model, while Tampa Bay's short-middle passing matchup shows +0.47. Those are team-level background indicators, not a projection for Daniels. The model uses 7491 eligible current-season plays through Week 4, blended with a prior incorporating the market anchor and roster continuity. On 2025 charting, Dak Prescott averaged 0.36 EPA per dropback clean and -0.28 under pressure. That older profile offers context, but cannot supply the missing adjustment for Tampa Bay's new starter.
Why · Confirmed starter: Jalon Daniels. Baker Mayfield is out because of a right-thumb injury. The model has no supported Daniels-for-Mayfield adjustment; both markets are unrated.
Situational
2026 through week 4 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
TB · 0 dropbacks
Jalon Daniels
Confirmed starter: Jalon Daniels. Baker Mayfield is out because of a right-thumb injury. The model has no supported Daniels-for-Mayfield adjustment; both markets are unrated.
DAL · 631 dropbacks
Dak Prescott
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.36 (440 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.28 (191 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
TB defence: pressure 35% · blitz 42%
TB offence vs DAL coverage
| Shell | DAL usage | TB EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (184 snaps) | +0.05 (168 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (157 snaps) | +0.20 (153 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (134 snaps) | +0.01 (162 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (80 snaps) | -0.29 (65 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | -0.07 (43 snaps) | -0.03 |
DAL man coverage 25% · TB vs man -0.01, vs zone +0.06
DAL offence vs TB coverage
| Shell | TB usage | DAL EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (203 snaps) | +0.16 (145 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 21% (137 snaps) | -0.04 (156 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 18% (113 snaps) | +0.38 (142 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 11% (71 snaps) | +0.26 (100 snaps) | +0.07 |
| 2-Man | 7% (45 snaps) | +0.29 (66 snaps) | +0.07 |
TB man coverage 29% · DAL vs man +0.33, vs zone +0.07
TB tendencies
Play action rate24% · — vs -0.15 EPA (38 snaps)
RPO rate3% (7 snaps)
Screen rate9% (14 snaps)
Personnel11 70%, 12 21%, 21 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man35% / 42% / 29%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.04 (29 snaps) · neutral -0.39 (36 snaps)
DAL tendencies
Play action rate24% · +0.11 vs +0.31 EPA (40 snaps)
RPO rate4% (10 snaps)
Screen rate8% (13 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 17%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / — / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.10 (39 snaps) · neutral -0.08 (63 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 4 · last updated 08 Oct 2026, 09:55 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 08/10/2026V3.2