NFL 2026 · Week 4
Away
TEN
Tennessee Titans
@
Home
BAL
Baltimore Ravens
Kick-off
Mon 5 Oct, 4:00am AEDT
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00pm ET
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Spread
BAL -11.5
Total
42.5
TEN ML
$6.40
BAL ML
$1.17
AU consensus as of 01/10/2026, 12:36:06 pm
Power Comparison
TENRating -6.7
Off EPA/play
-0.016
Def EPA/play
+0.106
Exp points
15.6
Offence by zone
-.18
-.07
+.03
-.36
-.24
+.02
+.20
-.01
-.06
+.05
+.00
+.08
-.01
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.14
+.21
+.15
+.06
+.17
-.03
+.08
-.06
+.04
-.06
-.05
+.04
-.07
BALRating +4.9
Off EPA/play
+0.149
Def EPA/play
+0.060
Exp points
29.5
Offence by zone
+.31
+.01
+.12
+.18
+.18
-.02
+.22
-.10
-.09
-.11
+.18
+.11
+.11
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.14
+.17
+.14
-.03
-.24
+.01
+.05
-.05
+.11
+.01
-.12
+.04
-.12
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
BAL offence vs TEN
short-middle passing
+0.34 EPA/play
BAL offence vs TEN
deep-left passing
+0.45 EPA/play
BAL offence vs TEN
runs off left end
+0.31 EPA/play
Market
Spread (BAL)
Open -11.5 → Now -11.5·Move 0.0
AU best
BAL -11 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best (other side)
TEN +12.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
Global best
BAL -11 @ $1.85 PlayUp
Total
Open 43.5 → Now 42.5·Move -1.0
AU best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best under
Under 43.0 @ $1.88 PlayUp
Global best over
Over 42.5 @ $1.95 LowVig.ag
AU best TEN ML
$6.40 SportsBet
AU best BAL ML
$1.17 Dabble AU
11 AU books · 33 total · 9 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: BAL -11
Model BAL +13.9 · total 45.1Spread · Analysis
BAL -11
$1.85 PlayUp
Edge +2.9EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 42.5
$1.90 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.6PASS
The model has Baltimore well clear of the market on the primary spread market, projecting a margin of 13.9 against PlayUp's best line of -11, but the edge there measures just 2.9 points, short of the Lean floor at this stage. The rating still blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams, scaled by roster continuity, and with only 5,586 plays of 2026 football logged through week 3, that sample barely dents the blend yet. On last season's charting, Lamar Jackson averaged 0.349 EPA per dropback with a clean pocket, well clear of Cam Ward's 0.083 in the same window. The model's record this year sits at 1-0 against the spread.
On the total, the model's 45.1 projection clears PointsBet's 42.5 line by 2.6 points, a PASS and nothing more. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
Why · BAL short-middle passing (+0.34 EPA/play vs TEN)
Situational
2026 through week 3 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
TEN · 592 dropbacks
Cam Ward
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.08 (407 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.80 (185 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)7%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
BAL defence: pressure 28% · blitz 37%
BAL · 338 dropbacks
Lamar Jackson
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.35 (229 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.67 (109 snaps)
Pressure rate faced32%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)8%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
TEN defence: pressure 30% · blitz —
TEN offence vs BAL coverage
| Shell | BAL usage | TEN EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 31% (217 snaps) | -0.20 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 24% (170 snaps) | -0.30 (144 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (131 snaps) | -0.02 (175 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 8% (53 snaps) | -0.78 (45 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 0 | 6% (42 snaps) | — | +0.10 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
BAL man coverage 32% · TEN vs man -0.21, vs zone -0.19
BAL offence vs TEN coverage
| Shell | TEN usage | BAL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 2 | 29% (173 snaps) | -0.21 (97 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (157 snaps) | -0.22 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (116 snaps) | +0.20 (132 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (56 snaps) | +0.34 (54 snaps) | +0.07 |
TEN man coverage 27% · BAL vs man +0.19, vs zone -0.08
TEN tendencies
Play action rate23% · — vs -0.14 EPA (23 snaps)
RPO rate4% (6 snaps)
Screen rate5% (5 snaps)
Personnel11 73%, 12 24%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / — / 27%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (47 snaps) · neutral -0.09 (40 snaps)
BAL tendencies
Play action rate34% · — vs +0.31 EPA (30 snaps)
RPO rate7% (12 snaps)
Screen rate3% (3 snaps)
Personnel12 35%, 11 30%, 21 19%, 22 9%
Def pressure / blitz / man28% / 37% / 32%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (44 snaps) · neutral +0.19 (25 snaps)
Tracked Bets
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 3 · last updated 01 Oct 2026, 12:41 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.
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savvyplays.comPublished 01/10/2026V3.2