NFL 2026 · Week 3
Kick-off
Mon 28 Sep, 3:00am AEST
Sun 27 Sep, 1:00pm ET
AU consensus as of 24/09/2026, 4:05:59 pm
Power Comparison
TENRating -3.8
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
NYGRating -4.0
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
NYG offence vs TEN
short-left passing
+0.20 EPA/play
TEN offence vs NYG
short-left passing
+0.18 EPA/play
NYG offence vs TEN
short-middle passing
+0.24 EPA/play
Market
Spread (NYG)
Open -3 → Now -2.5·Move +0.5
AU bestNYG -2.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)TEN +3 @ $1.85 TAB
Global bestNYG -2.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Total
Open 40.5 → Now 39.5·Move -1.0
AU best overOver 39.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best underUnder 40.0 @ $1.92 TABtouch
Global best overOver 39.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best TEN ML
$2.25 Ladbrokes
AU best NYG ML
$1.70 Bet Right
11 AU books · 33 total · 8 snapshots
The Call
QB situation unresolved - no rating basis
No rating basis
NYG: 2026-09-24: New York quarterback change from Jaxson Dart to Jameis Winston needs a signed numeric adjustment before pricing. Keep Tennessee-New York Giants unrated.
Spread · Rating withheld
Unrated
Total · Rating withheld
Unrated
The Giants' quarterback situation is the story here. New York has moved from Jaxson Dart to Jameis Winston, a change that needs a signed numeric adjustment before the model can price it, so New York-Tennessee stays unrated. The model's raw numbers, blending last season's form with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, show a 2.6-point margin and a 50.1 total, but that context means nothing without a resolved starter under centre - there is no rating basis for this game until the quarterback question is settled.
With Winston or Dart's role unclear, there is no side to weigh and nothing further to draw from the numbers. Tennessee's Cam Ward has a clear 2025 profile by comparison, including a drop to -0.795 EPA per dropback under pressure on last season's charting, but that only matters once the Giants' half of the equation is fixed. Keep an eye on the Giants' starter announcement - that confirmation is what unlocks a proper read on this game.
Why · QB situation unresolved - no rating basis (NYG)
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
TEN · 592 dropbacks
Cam Ward
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.08 (407 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.80 (185 snaps)
Pressure rate faced31%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)7%
QB-fault sack rate4%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
NYG defence: pressure 30% · blitz 30%
NYG · 0 dropbacks
Starter not named
QB situation unresolved: no starter to profile
TEN offence vs NYG coverage
| Shell | NYG usage | TEN EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 31% (191 snaps) | -0.30 (144 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (160 snaps) | -0.20 (191 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 15% (94 snaps) | -0.02 (175 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 15% (92 snaps) | -0.78 (45 snaps) | +0.07 |
NYG man coverage 40% · TEN vs man -0.21, vs zone -0.19
NYG offence vs TEN coverage
| Shell | TEN usage | NYG EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 2 | 29% (173 snaps) | -0.23 (133 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 3 | 26% (157 snaps) | +0.38 (172 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 19% (116 snaps) | +0.06 (171 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 9% (56 snaps) | -0.08 (59 snaps) | +0.07 |
TEN man coverage 27% · NYG vs man +0.00, vs zone +0.06
TEN tendencies
Play action rate19% · -0.04 vs -0.23 EPA (121 snaps)
RPO rate11% (110 snaps)
Screen rate11% (70 snaps)
Personnel11 73%, 12 24%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 23% / 27%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.01 (201 snaps) · neutral -0.04 (149 snaps) · heavy +0.02 (44 snaps)
NYG tendencies
Play action rate23% · -0.01 vs +0.06 EPA (143 snaps)
RPO rate12% (130 snaps)
Screen rate7% (43 snaps)
Personnel11 61%, 12 33%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man30% / 30% / 40%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.15 (222 snaps) · neutral +0.13 (151 snaps) · heavy -0.02 (35 snaps)
Model Form
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 3,666 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (weeks 1 to 2), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 24/09/2026V3.2