NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
WAS
Washington Commanders
@
Home
DAL
Dallas Cowboys
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 4:25pm ET
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Spread
DAL -4
Total
50.5
WAS ML
$2.76
DAL ML
$1.50
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm
Power Comparison
WASRating -1.5
Off EPA/play
+0.080
Def EPA/play
+0.108
Exp points
27.3
Offence by zone
+.20
-.06
-.23
-.14
+.10
+.15
+.00
-.01
-.10
+.00
-.06
+.00
+.21
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.25
+.14
+.27
-.04
+.16
-.00
-.06
+.03
+.14
-.01
+.08
+.15
-.02
DALRating -1.7
Off EPA/play
+0.137
Def EPA/play
+0.167
Exp points
28.1
Offence by zone
.00
+.13
+.09
+.22
+.01
-.00
-.03
+.06
-.01
+.02
-.07
+.12
+.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.08
+.07
-.03
+.31
+.31
+.07
+.02
-.07
-.02
-.04
-.02
+.02
-.01
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
WAS offence vs DAL
short-middle passing
+0.41 EPA/play
WAS offence vs DAL
short-right passing
+0.22 EPA/play
DAL offence vs WAS
deep-right passing
+0.35 EPA/play
Market
Spread (DAL)
Open -3.5 → Now -4·Move -0.5
AU best
DAL -3.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
WAS +4.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
DAL -3.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
Total
Open 50.5 → Now 50.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 50.0 @ $1.91 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 50.5 @ $1.93 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 38.5 @ $1.16 Courtside
AU best WAS ML
$2.76 SportsBet
AU best DAL ML
$1.50 Unibet
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots
The Call
Edge noted / no bet: Over 50
Model DAL +0.8 · total 55.5Spread · Analysis
WAS +4.5
$1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.7EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 50
$1.91 PlayUp
Edge +5.5EDGE NOTED / NO BET
The model's primary lean is the total, with the market's best price at 50 (over, PlayUp, 1.91) against a model total of 55.5, an edge of 5.5 points. That's short of the 10-point bar the model demands before week 6, so this sits as an edge noted and nothing more, under the Lean floor. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 2.0 points for Jayden Daniels, built off Mariota/Johnson weeks with Daniels now returning. The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football in the mix so far, a small sample not yet enough to shift things. The model's season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 1.
On last season's charting, Daniels' EPA per dropback fell from 0.14 clean to -0.347 under pressure, a split that feeds the model's read of this matchup as higher-scoring than the market's total suggests.
Why · DAL deep-right passing (+0.35 EPA/play vs WAS, WAS's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · WAS Jayden Daniels +2.0 pts
Situational
2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
WAS · 205 dropbacks
Jayden Daniels
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.14 (136 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.35 (69 snaps)
Pressure rate faced34%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)11%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DAL defence: pressure 32% · blitz 28%
DAL · 631 dropbacks
Dak Prescott
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.36 (440 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.28 (191 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
WAS defence: pressure 31% · blitz 27%
WAS offence vs DAL coverage
| Shell | DAL usage | WAS EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 3 | 29% (184 snaps) | +0.08 (170 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 25% (157 snaps) | +0.12 (103 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (134 snaps) | -0.18 (156 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 4 | 13% (80 snaps) | +0.21 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 6% (40 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
DAL man coverage 25% · WAS vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.09
DAL offence vs WAS coverage
| Shell | WAS usage | DAL EPA/db | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cover 1 | 25% (152 snaps) | +0.38 (142 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (147 snaps) | +0.16 (145 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (120 snaps) | -0.04 (156 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (96 snaps) | +0.26 (100 snaps) | +0.07 |
WAS man coverage 31% · DAL vs man +0.33, vs zone +0.07
WAS tendencies
Play action rate26% · +0.27 vs -0.04 EPA (146 snaps)
RPO rate8% (77 snaps)
Screen rate8% (46 snaps)
Personnel11 59%, 12 30%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 27% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.04 (278 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (166 snaps)
DAL tendencies
Play action rate27% · +0.27 vs +0.12 EPA (183 snaps)
RPO rate5% (58 snaps)
Screen rate6% (39 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 17%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 28% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.08 (216 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (147 snaps) · heavy -0.01 (29 snaps)
Model Form
Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2025 season, weeks 6-17, V3 at best available line: 29-18, +17.8% ROI
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first. Only 1,830 plays of 2026 play-by-play exist so far (week 1), so ratings are still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with the 2026 sample phased in as it grows. The model alone cannot see coaching, roster or scheme changes - only the market anchor, roster continuity and the manual override tables capture those. In last season's backtest the same approach went 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals over weeks 1 to 5; 53% on totals is break-even at -110. Only edges of 10 points or more are staked (Play) before week 6; a 7-10 point edge is analysis only (Lean), not a tip.
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savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2