← Back to NFL
NFL 2026 · Week 2
Away
WAS
Washington Commanders
@
Home
DAL
Dallas Cowboys
Kick-off
Mon 21 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 20 Sep, 4:25pm ET
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Spread
DAL -4
Total
50.5
WAS ML
$2.76
DAL ML
$1.50
AU consensus as of 17/09/2026, 12:15:05 pm

Power Comparison

WASRating -1.5
Off EPA/play
+0.080
Def EPA/play
+0.108
Exp points
27.3
Offence by zone
+.20
-.06
-.23
-.14
+.10
+.15
+.00
-.01
-.10
+.00
-.06
+.00
+.21
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.25
+.14
+.27
-.04
+.16
-.00
-.06
+.03
+.14
-.01
+.08
+.15
-.02
DALRating -1.7
Off EPA/play
+0.137
Def EPA/play
+0.167
Exp points
28.1
Offence by zone
.00
+.13
+.09
+.22
+.01
-.00
-.03
+.06
-.01
+.02
-.07
+.12
+.05
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
+.08
+.07
-.03
+.31
+.31
+.07
+.02
-.07
-.02
-.04
-.02
+.02
-.01
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

WAS offence vs DAL
short-middle passing
+0.41 EPA/play
WAS offence vs DAL
short-right passing
+0.22 EPA/play
DAL offence vs WAS
deep-right passing
+0.35 EPA/play

Market

Spread (DAL)
Open -3.5 → Now -4·Move -0.5
AU best
DAL -3.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)
WAS +4.5 @ $1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Global best
DAL -3.5 @ $1.88 Dabble AU
Total
Open 50.5 → Now 50.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 50.0 @ $1.91 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 50.5 @ $1.93 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 38.5 @ $1.16 Courtside
AU best WAS ML
$2.76 SportsBet
AU best DAL ML
$1.50 Unibet
11 AU books · 33 total · 6 snapshots

The Call

Edge noted / no bet: Over 50
Model DAL +0.8 · total 55.5
Spread · Analysis
WAS +4.5
$1.87 PointsBet (AU)
Edge +2.7EDGE NOTED / NO BET
Total · Analysis
Over 50
$1.91 PlayUp
Edge +5.5EDGE NOTED / NO BET

The model's primary lean is the total, with the market's best price at 50 (over, PlayUp, 1.91) against a model total of 55.5, an edge of 5.5 points. That's short of the 10-point bar the model demands before week 6, so this sits as an edge noted and nothing more, under the Lean floor. The rating carries a hand adjustment of 2.0 points for Jayden Daniels, built off Mariota/Johnson weeks with Daniels now returning. The rating is still mostly last season's numbers blended with the market's post-offseason view of each team and scaled by roster continuity, with only 1,830 plays of 2026 football in the mix so far, a small sample not yet enough to shift things. The model's season record sits at 1-0 against the spread through week 1.

On last season's charting, Daniels' EPA per dropback fell from 0.14 clean to -0.347 under pressure, a split that feeds the model's read of this matchup as higher-scoring than the market's total suggests.

Why · DAL deep-right passing (+0.35 EPA/play vs WAS, WAS's weakest zone)
Hand adjustments · WAS Jayden Daniels +2.0 pts

Situational

2025 season · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
WAS · 205 dropbacks
Jayden Daniels
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.14 (136 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.35 (69 snaps)
Pressure rate faced34%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)11%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
DAL defence: pressure 32% · blitz 28%
DAL · 631 dropbacks
Dak Prescott
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.36 (440 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.28 (191 snaps)
Pressure rate faced30%
Int-worthy rate3%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
WAS defence: pressure 31% · blitz 27%
WAS offence vs DAL coverage
ShellDAL usageWAS EPA/dbLeague
Cover 329% (184 snaps)+0.08 (170 snaps)+0.06
Cover 225% (157 snaps)+0.12 (103 snaps)0.00
Cover 121% (134 snaps)-0.18 (156 snaps)+0.06
Cover 413% (80 snaps)+0.21 (49 snaps)+0.07
Cover 66% (40 snaps)—-0.03
DAL man coverage 25% · WAS vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.09
DAL offence vs WAS coverage
ShellWAS usageDAL EPA/dbLeague
Cover 125% (152 snaps)+0.38 (142 snaps)+0.06
Cover 324% (147 snaps)+0.16 (145 snaps)+0.06
Cover 219% (120 snaps)-0.04 (156 snaps)0.00
Cover 416% (96 snaps)+0.26 (100 snaps)+0.07
WAS man coverage 31% · DAL vs man +0.33, vs zone +0.07
WAS tendencies
Play action rate26% · +0.27 vs -0.04 EPA (146 snaps)
RPO rate8% (77 snaps)
Screen rate8% (46 snaps)
Personnel11 59%, 12 30%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 27% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.04 (278 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (166 snaps)
DAL tendencies
Play action rate27% · +0.27 vs +0.12 EPA (183 snaps)
RPO rate5% (58 snaps)
Screen rate6% (39 snaps)
Personnel11 68%, 12 17%, 21 8%
Def pressure / blitz / man32% / 28% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight +0.08 (216 snaps) · neutral +0.01 (147 snaps) · heavy -0.01 (29 snaps)

Tracked Bets

Spread
1-0
Total
0-0
Units
+0.8
2026 season graded betting log through Week 1 · last updated 17 Sept 2026, 04:49 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 17/09/2026V3.2