← Back to NFL
NFL 2026 · Week 1
Away
WAS
Washington Commanders
@
Home
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sep, 6:25am AEST
Sun 13 Sep, 4:25pm ET
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Spread
PHI -5
Total
44.5
WAS ML
$3.00
PHI ML
$1.46
AU consensus as of 07/09/2026, 6:15:04 pm

Power Comparison

WASRating -2.4
Off EPA/play
+0.076
Def EPA/play
+0.119
Exp points
21.4
Offence by zone
+.15
-.05
-.15
-.14
+.06
+.14
+.03
-.03
-.18
+.01
-.06
+.01
+.29
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.34
+.22
+.16
+.05
+.13
+.07
-.04
+.07
+.17
-.07
+.14
+.15
-.02
PHIRating +1.9
Off EPA/play
+0.044
Def EPA/play
+0.009
Exp points
24.9
Offence by zone
-.22
-.07
-.19
-.02
+.06
-.08
+.12
-.11
+.18
+.02
+.09
-.03
-.14
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
-.11
+.38
-.04
-.12
-.19
-.16
-.11
-.09
-.01
+.16
+.04
+.11
-.17
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.

Matchup Edges

PHI offence vs WAS
runs off left tackle
+0.35 EPA/play
WAS offence vs PHI
deep-middle passing
+0.33 EPA/play
WAS offence vs PHI
inside runs
+0.17 EPA/play

Market

Spread (PHI)
Open -5 → Now -5·Move 0.0
AU best
PHI -4.5 @ $1.90 PointsBet (AU)
AU best (other side)
WAS +5.5 @ $1.89 Unibet
Global best
PHI -4.5 @ $1.91 Bovada
Total
Open 44.5 → Now 44.5·Move 0.0
AU best over
Over 44.0 @ $1.85 PlayUp
AU best under
Under 44.5 @ $1.91 TABtouch
Global best over
Over 44.0 @ $1.91 Fanatics
AU best WAS ML
$3.00 SportsBet
AU best PHI ML
$1.46 Unibet
11 AU books · 32 total · 3 snapshots

The Call

No edge
Model PHI +3.5 · total 46.2
Spread · Analysis
WAS +5.5
$1.89 Unibet
Edge +1.0PASS
Total · Analysis
Over 44
$1.85 PlayUp
Edge +2.2PASS

Philadelphia is favoured at -4.5 with PointsBet (AU) at 1.90, and the model's own margin of 3.5 sits under that. The total is the primary market: the model projects 46.2 against a best line of 44 (Over) at PlayUp (1.85), a 2.2-point edge well short of the 10-point bar the model needs before week 6. Philadelphia's left-tackle run game shows a +0.35 EPA/play advantage over Washington, while Washington counters with deep-middle passing (+0.33) and inside runs (+0.17), which helps explain a slightly higher projected total without producing a real edge. The spread (Washington +5.5 at Unibet, 1.89) carries just a 1.0-point edge, also a PASS.

There's no 2026 play-by-play yet, so this rating blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams, scaled by roster continuity. It also carries a hand adjustment of 2.5 points for Jayden Daniels, built off backup snaps last year. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Why · PHI runs off left tackle (+0.35 EPA/play vs WAS)
Hand adjustments · WAS Jayden Daniels +2.5 pts

Published Model Results

2026 season · Through Week 6 · Updated 25 Oct 2026, 04:02 pm AEDT

This results panel was subsequently updated after this article was first published.

All rated analysis (W–L–P)
CoverageSpreadsTotals
Week 66–3–17–3–0
Season to W637–34–441–32–2

Includes PASS signals; UNRATED markets excluded.

Week 6 PLAY recommendations: 4–2–1 · +1.50u paper return

One unit risked per PLAY recommendation at its original published decimal price: win = price minus one, loss = minus one, push = zero. Hypothetical paper return, not actual bets. No STRONG recommendations through Week 6.

SEA-DEN: both LEAN analysis calls won; No formal betting selection. Excluded from PLAY returns.

Results source and coverage

Tracked Bets

Spread
0-0
Total
0-0
Units
0.0
2026 season graded betting log through Week 0 · last updated 07 Sept 2026, 06:54 pm
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Weeks 1 to 5 are published analysis-first while the current-season play sample is still small. Ratings lean more on prior-season performance, market anchors, roster continuity and supported manual adjustments until the 2026 sample grows. PLAY labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet has been placed. Historical early-season backtest claims are withheld from this display unless independently verified.

Analysis only. Not financial advice. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858. Read our responsible gambling policy.

savvyplays.comPublished 07/09/2026V3.2