Philadelphia is favoured at -4.5 with PointsBet (AU) at 1.90, and the model's own margin of 3.5 sits under that. The total is the primary market: the model projects 46.2 against a best line of 44 (Over) at PlayUp (1.85), a 2.2-point edge well short of the 10-point bar the model needs before week 6. Philadelphia's left-tackle run game shows a +0.35 EPA/play advantage over Washington, while Washington counters with deep-middle passing (+0.33) and inside runs (+0.17), which helps explain a slightly higher projected total without producing a real edge. The spread (Washington +5.5 at Unibet, 1.89) carries just a 1.0-point edge, also a PASS.

There's no 2026 play-by-play yet, so this rating blends last season's numbers with the market's post-offseason view of both teams, scaled by roster continuity. It also carries a hand adjustment of 2.5 points for Jayden Daniels, built off backup snaps last year. The early-season record of 32-46 against the spread and 41-37 on totals last year is a plain reminder that break-even, not edge, is the honest read here.