NFL 2026 · Week 6
Away
WAS
Washington Commanders
@
Home
SF
San Francisco 49ers
Kick-off
Tue 20 Oct, 11:15am AEDT
Mon 19 Oct, 8:15pm ET
AU consensus as of 15/10/2026, 11:39:22 am
Power Comparison
WASRating -2.7
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
SFRating +6.2
Defence by zone (EPA allowed)
Zone cells are EPA/play vs league mean, left to right in model order. Green = better for that team. Hover a cell for the zone name.
Matchup Edges
WAS offence vs SF
short-left passing
+0.54 EPA/play
SF offence vs WAS
deep-middle passing
+0.65 EPA/play
SF offence vs WAS
short-middle passing
+0.37 EPA/play
Market
Spread (SF)
Open -7.5 → Now -7.5·Move 0.0
AU bestSF -7.5 @ $2.00 Dabble AU
AU best (other side)WAS +7.5 @ $1.92 Unibet
Global bestSF -7.5 @ $2.00 Dabble AU
Total
Open 50.5 → Now 50.5·Move 0.0
AU best overOver 50.5 @ $1.93 TABtouch
AU best underUnder 50.5 @ $1.95 TAB
Global best overOver 50.5 @ $1.95 theScore Bet
AU best WAS ML
$4.30 SportsBet
AU best SF ML
$1.28 Dabble AU
10 AU books · 33 total · 7 snapshots
The Call
Lean: SF -7.5
Model SF +12.3 · total 46.7Spread · Analysis
SF -7.5
$2.00 Dabble AU
Edge +4.8LEAN
Total · Analysis
Under 50.5
$1.95 TAB
Edge +3.8LEAN
San Francisco has the stronger overall model profile, but Washington has a specific route to challenge it through short-left passing. Jayden Daniels returned to start in Week 5 and remains the listed starter for this matchup. His return clears the earlier availability hold; it does not remove historical Mariota plays from Washington's team sample or make the forecast specific to Daniels.
The 49ers' passing opportunities through the middle are favourable, but Deebo Samuel Sr. is expected to miss time with a hamstring injury. Nick Bosa and Kyle Juszczyk have a chance to return rather than confirmed clearance, and Garret Wallow's hamstring problem reduces linebacker depth. That leaves meaningful uncertainty on both sides of the ball. The Monday-game practice reports were not yet available, so those developments need a later check. No new injury points have been added. SF -7.5 at Dabble AU, priced at 2.00, has a 4.8-point model edge and remains LEAN. Under 50.5 at TAB, priced at 1.95, is also analysis only. Neither is a formal recommendation.
Why · SF deep-middle passing (+0.65 EPA/play vs WAS)
Situational
2026 through week 5 (pressure, coverage and personnel: 2025 season) · FTN charting via nflverse · min 40 snaps per cell (25 for box counts)
WAS · 205 dropbacks
Jayden Daniels
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.14 (136 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.35 (69 snaps)
Pressure rate faced34%
Int-worthy rate2%
Drop rate (catchable)11%
QB-fault sack rate3%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
SF defence: pressure 23% · blitz 31%
SF · 298 dropbacks
Brock Purdy
Clean pocket EPA/db+0.45 (214 snaps)
Under pressure EPA/db-0.45 (84 snaps)
Pressure rate faced28%
Int-worthy rate4%
Drop rate (catchable)6%
QB-fault sack rate1%
League: +0.26 clean · -0.46 pressured
WAS defence: pressure 31% · blitz 46%
WAS offence vs SF coverage
| Shell | SF usage | WAS EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 3 | 32% (201 snaps) | +0.08 (170 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 1 | 21% (130 snaps) | -0.18 (156 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 17% (110 snaps) | +0.12 (103 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 14% (88 snaps) | +0.21 (49 snaps) | +0.07 |
| Cover 6 | 9% (55 snaps) | — | -0.03 |
SF man coverage 25% · WAS vs man -0.06, vs zone +0.09
SF offence vs WAS coverage
| Shell | WAS usage | SF EPA/db | League |
|---|
| Cover 1 | 25% (152 snaps) | +0.05 (134 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 3 | 24% (147 snaps) | +0.24 (164 snaps) | +0.06 |
| Cover 2 | 19% (120 snaps) | +0.13 (152 snaps) | 0.00 |
| Cover 4 | 16% (96 snaps) | +0.28 (64 snaps) | +0.07 |
WAS man coverage 31% · SF vs man +0.14, vs zone +0.17
WAS tendencies
Play action rate23% · +0.09 vs +0.06 EPA (44 snaps)
RPO rate6% (20 snaps)
Screen rate5% (10 snaps)
Personnel11 59%, 12 30%, 13 5%
Def pressure / blitz / man31% / 46% / 31%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.15 (40 snaps) · neutral -0.21 (56 snaps)
SF tendencies
Play action rate25% · — vs +0.51 EPA (39 snaps)
RPO rate1% (2 snaps)
Screen rate10% (16 snaps)
Personnel11 43%, 21 37%, 12 11%, 22 7%
Def pressure / blitz / man23% / 31% / 25%
Box vs run, EPA allowedlight -0.09 (52 snaps) · neutral -0.20 (70 snaps)
Tracked Bets
2026 season graded betting log through Week 5 · last updated 15 Oct 2026, 11:55 am
Recorded bets only. Published model selections and historical backtests are tracked separately.
Team-history ratings use 9,277 eligible plays from 2026 through Week 5. Prior-season weight and numerical QB overrides are zero. Historical plays by other quarterbacks remain in each team's sample; the projection is not specific to the named starter and does not automatically account for new injuries. Injuries and situational splits provide context without additional numerical adjustments. Home-spread edges require 5 points for PLAY and 10 for STRONG; Over edges require 7 and 12. Away and Under directions remain analysis only. PLAY and STRONG labels are model recommendations, not confirmation that a bet was placed. Tracked Bets includes recorded bets only. Situational charting covers 2026 through Week 5; pressure, coverage and personnel cover 2025 through Week 18.
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savvyplays.comPublished 15/10/2026V3.2