Group D

The Host's Headache

Paraguay Australia United States Türkiye

Venues: Los Angeles, Seattle, Vancouver, Santa Clara

The Group

Group D is the most genuinely open group of the 2026 tournament. The United States arrive as co-hosts and slight favourites at +130 to win the group, yet Pochettino's side shipped a 5-2 loss to Belgium and a 2-0 defeat to Portugal in their March warmups, suggesting the defensive structure is still a work in progress. Christian Pulisic enters in the best form of his career after a standout season at AC Milan, and the US front line is sharp; the backline is where bettors should be looking for value in the overs. Türkiye are the genuinely dangerous pick here. Vincenzo Montella has Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, two 21-year-olds who operate at Real Madrid and Juventus respectively, cutting in behind a defence anchored by Çalhanoğlu's tempo at Inter Milan. Türkiye beat the US 2-1 in a June 2025 friendly and ended a 24-year World Cup absence by coming through the UEFA playoffs. They fancy their chances. Paraguay return to the World Cup after missing three consecutive editions, having beaten Brazil and Argentina in CONMEBOL qualifying and conceding just 10 goals across 18 qualifying matches; they grind, counter, and make life ugly. Australia are the most complete outsider at +900, but Tony Popovic's back-three system, with Souttar, Circati and Burgess, kept their last five opponents to just three goals combined. Riley McGree's hamstring injury is a real blow. The Socceroos can steal points but probably cannot take two wins from three.