Group F

The Giant Killers' Gauntlet

Venues: Dallas, Houston, Monterrey, Kansas City

The Group

Netherlands are the class of this group and short enough in the outright market at around -135 to -140 to win it. Ronald Koeman's side went unbeaten through UEFA qualifying, scoring 27 goals and conceding just four across eight games, before reaching the Euro 2024 semi-finals. That pedigree is real. The major concern is Xavi Simons, who ruptured his ACL in April and is out of the tournament entirely, removing their most unpredictable attacking option. Japan are the only side that genuinely fancy their chances of nicking second spot. They beat England 1-0 at Wembley in March, the first Asian nation ever to do so, and Moriyasu's pressing 3-4-3 causes top sides serious problems. The bad news: Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino are both injured and will miss the tournament, stripping Japan of two of their sharpest wide threats. Sweden arrive riding Viktor Gyökeres's four-goal play-off heroics, including a hat-trick against Ukraine. Graham Potter has had less than a year in the job and qualified without winning a single group game. That's a red flag. Gyökeres and Alexander Isak give them a world-class front two, but depth behind those two is thin and Dejan Kulusevski misses through injury. Tunisia are genuinely poor at this level. They conceded zero goals in CAF qualifying, but their group contained Namibia, Liberia and São Tomé e Príncipe. In six previous World Cup appearances, they have never cleared the group stage. Sabri Lamouchi has had five months in charge. Ellyes Skhiri and Hannibal Mejbri are quality operators, but Tunisia lack the firepower to threaten three sides of this calibre. Back Netherlands to win the group; value sits in the Netherlands/Japan dual forecast around +130.