Group I

The Group of Death

Venues: Boston, Philadelphia, East Rutherford, Toronto

The Group

In a 48-team format designed to dilute danger, Group I refused to play along. France arrive as the world's top-ranked nation and joint tournament favourites at roughly +475 outright, with Didier Deschamps steering Les Bleus through what he has confirmed is his final tournament. Mbappé captains the side at his third World Cup, already on 12 career goals and chasing Klose's all-time record of 16. The group winner market barely needs analysing: France are priced around -215 to top the section. Second place is where the real contest lies, and it is genuinely compelling. Norway return to the World Cup for the first time in 28 years under Ståle Solbakken, powered by a perfect eight-from-eight qualifying campaign that produced 37 goals. Haaland scored 16 of those alone. The to-qualify market has Norway at around -350, which feels short enough given their defensive vulnerabilities against pace. Senegal bring genuine threat: Sadio Mané named AFCON player of the tournament in January before the CAF controversially stripped the Lions of their title over the walkout in the Morocco final. That unresolved fury could fuel a deep run, and the +175 to qualify represents real value. Iraq are making their first World Cup appearance since 1986 under Australian coach Graham Arnold, who rallied a squad that squeezed through a playoff win over Bolivia. They drew 1-1 with Spain in their final pre-tournament friendly, which is impressive on paper but means nothing against this calibre of opponent. A points tally above zero would be a victory in itself.