Estadio Akron · Zapopan
The Leopards Already Drew Portugal. Now They Want Colombia's Scalp Too.
DR Congo arrive at Estadio Akron off a stunning 1-1 against Portugal. Colombia arrive off a 3-1 win but with a real test in front of them.
Match Preview
Group K's matchday 2 at Estadio Akron in Zapopan serves up the most tactically interesting fixture of the group. Both teams arrive with something to play for, and neither can afford to treat this lightly. Colombia sit top after beating Uzbekistan 3-1 on June 17, with Luis Díaz scoring the decisive goal after coming on from the left. DR Congo, in their first World Cup since 1974, are one point behind after producing one of the tournament's early results: a 1-1 draw with Portugal in Houston, Yoane Wissa's first-half header cancelling out João Neves's opener and leaving Cristiano Ronaldo's side rattled. The stakes are clear. Colombia win here and qualification to the Round of 32 is virtually sealed, regardless of what happens against Portugal in the final group game. DR Congo win here and they are suddenly genuine contenders for the second automatic spot. A draw keeps both sides in the hunt but tilts the group back toward Portugal. There is no dead rubber in these numbers. The venue matters for Colombia in a different way than it did for their opener in Mexico City. Zapopan is home territory in spirit: Los Cafeteros have a significant diaspora fanbase in western Mexico, and the Estadio Akron crowd will tilt yellow and red. The altitude is 1,700 metres above sea level, lower than the Estadio Azteca's 2,240 metres, but still a factor for DR Congo's diaspora squad, most of whom played the 2025-26 season at sea level in Europe. Tactically, this is a contest between Colombia's patient positional play and DR Congo's ability to absorb pressure and hurt teams on the counter. Néstor Lorenzo's 4-2-3-1 is designed to dominate the ball and create overloads on the left through Díaz. Sébastien Desabre's 5-4-1 block compresses central space aggressively and transitions at pace through Wissa. DR Congo showed against Portugal that they can sit deep and punish on the break; Colombia's full-backs, who push extremely high, could leave gaps on transition. That is the game within the game. Colombia are the better side. The question is whether they can break down a defence that kept eight clean sheets in their last eleven matches entering the tournament. Pre-tournament results from either side tell us little beyond squad selection. What matters is the system, the personnel, and the matchup.
The Two Sides
Colombia arrive at this fixture with three points on the board and genuine confidence. The 3-1 win over Uzbekistan was not entirely clean, Abbosbek Fayzullaev equalised on the hour before Díaz restored the lead, but the result was never seriously in doubt. Lorenzo's 4-2-3-1 functioned as intended: Díaz caused constant problems from the left, Daniel Muñoz attacked relentlessly from right-back to open the scoring, and James Rodríguez pulled strings between the lines. Richard Ríos and Jefferson Lerma anchored the double pivot effectively, with Ríos's range of passing from his season at Benfica on full display. The concern for Lorenzo is the high defensive line. DR Congo's transition pace, particularly Wissa's direct running, will stress the central defenders more than Uzbekistan's rather static attack did. Dávinson Sánchez at Galatasaray and Jhon Lucumí will need to hold their shape. Colombia finished CONMEBOL qualifying as the second-highest scoring side with 28 goals and showed they can put sides away when the press clicks. Against a deep block, though, they can be patient to a fault. James Rodríguez at 34, playing MLS football with Minnesota United, will need to manage his energy across what could be a congested midfield zone. Colombia's quality is unquestionable at this level. The task is execution against a side that has already proven it can frustrate better-credentialled opponents.
DR Congo's 1-1 against Portugal was not a fluke. Sébastien Desabre set up in a disciplined 5-4-1, compressed the central corridor, and used Wissa's pace relentlessly on the counter. The Leopards had eight attempts to Portugal's seven, forced Ronaldo into two missed sitters, and scored their first-ever World Cup goal through Wissa's header just before half-time. That is a legitimate result, not a smash-and-grab. The defensive structure is their foundation. Chancel Mbemba marshals the back five with 107 caps of authority. Aaron Wan-Bissaka, now at West Ham United, brings elite one-on-one defensive quality to the right wing-back role, and his profile is almost tailor-made to contain a marauding left winger. The pre-tournament loss of Rocky Bushiri to an Achilles injury meant Axel Tuanzebe stepped in, and the Burnley defender, who famously scored the qualifying winner against Jamaica at this very stadium, was solid. Creative limitation is real: DR Congo can struggle to manufacture chances when the initial counter is stopped and they are forced to play against a settled low block. Cédric Bakambu at 35, one goal short of the national scoring record, remains the focal point. His movement and experience give the Leopards a reference point, but he will need service. Noah Sadiki's energy in midfield from Sunderland will be critical to winning second balls when Colombia's press comes.
Key Battle
This is the defining positional matchup of the game. Díaz operates as a nominal forward but spends most of his time in the left half-space, cutting inside off the left channel. He scored Colombia's second goal against Uzbekistan from exactly that movement. Wan-Bissaka, playing as a right wing-back in Desabre's 5-4-1, is specifically structured to deal with wide attackers in one-on-one situations. He made more tackles in the 2019-20 Premier League season than any other defender and his slide-tackling and recovery pace are elite. If Wan-Bissaka contains Díaz, DR Congo's defensive shape holds and they can stay in the game long enough for a set piece or counter. If Díaz gets in behind or isolates Wan-Bissaka on the turn, Colombia's left-channel overloads become unmanageable. Lorenzo knows it. Desabre knows it. The rest of the match is almost secondary.
Tactical Angle
Lorenzo will set up in his 4-2-3-1, with Ríos and Lerma as the double pivot sitting in front of the back four. Muñoz and Mojica push aggressively to create width, which forces Desabre's wing-backs to track deep and compress the space Díaz and Cucho Hernández want to exploit centrally. DR Congo's 5-4-1 transitions into a 3-4-3 on the counter, with Wissa and Bakambu operating as a front two when possession is won. Set pieces are a genuine weapon for the Leopards: Mbemba has scored eight international goals, several from dead balls, and Tuanzebe scored the defining goal of their qualification campaign. Colombia's zonal marking at corners was exposed intermittently against Uzbekistan. Desabre will have noticed. Colombia's own set-piece delivery, with James Rodríguez and Díaz both capable of whipping balls into the box, is high quality, and Sánchez and Lucumí are strong aerially. Expect Colombia to use Mojica's deliveries from the left flank as a primary attacking weapon.
Betting Preview
The Under 2.5 at 1.68 represents genuine value given the tactical setup. DR Congo play a compact 5-4-1 that kept a clean sheet in seven of their last ten matches before arriving in North America and held Portugal to 1-1 in their opener. Colombia are 1.49 favourites, correctly priced as the better side, but breaking down a deep block with a counter-press threat is hard work. World Cup group games average well under 2.5 goals when one side sits deep. Colombia will likely win, but a 1-0 scoreline is more probable than a 3-1 opener suggests. Colombia's shortest price covers the outright; the value is in the goal-line market at Under 2.5, not in trying to find 2+ goals against a defence that has already troubled Portugal.
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Our Prediction
Colombia are the clear better side and should win this game. The 1.49 is a fair price, not a steal. Watch how DR Congo line up: if Wan-Bissaka shuts down Díaz, this could be uncomfortably tight until a set piece or individual moment breaks it open. Back Colombia to win and back the Under 2.5 as the value overlay. Two goals from Los Cafeteros, clean sheet, job done.
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