Brisbane Lions v Essendon
Brisbane 9–6, Gabba advantage. Essendon 3–14, 0–8 away. H2H Brisbane 4–1. Strong tip: Brisbane by 25.
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Western Bulldogs v West Coast
West Coast 4–12, 1–7 away. Bulldogs 7–8. Unanimous 27/27, 74.4%. Strong tip: Bulldogs by 20.
Greater Western Sydney v Geelong
Dead split: Squiggle 14–13. Geelong 2–5 away. GWS 4–3 at home. Lean tip: GWS by 3.
Sydney v Western Bulldogs
Sydney 12–3, 7–1 at home. Bulldogs 7–7 off a bye. 26/27 consensus. Strong tip: Sydney by 15.
Richmond v Carlton
Richmond 2–13, worst in AFL. Carlton 7–7, 4 straight wins. Unanimous 27/27. Strong tip: Carlton by 20.
Essendon v St Kilda
Essendon 2–14 but H2H 4–1 and just broke their losing streak. St Kilda 6–7 off a bye. Lean tip: St Kilda by 5.
Gold Coast v Collingwood
Both 6–8. Gold Coast 5–2 at home. Collingwood 3–4 away. Squiggle 22–5. Lean tip: Gold Coast by 8.
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Hawthorn 10–4 v Melbourne 9–5 in Launceston. Squiggle 22–5 Hawks. Lean tip: Hawthorn by 10.
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
Port 4–11, 2–6 at home. North 7–8. H2H North 4–1. Unanimous 27/27, 74.0%. Strong tip: North by 20.
Greater Western Sydney v Fremantle
Fremantle 14–1, best in the AFL. GWS 5–9 at Manuka Oval (not home fortress). Strong tip: Fremantle by 15.
West Coast v Adelaide
Adelaide 10–5, 4 straight wins. West Coast 4–11. Unanimous 27/27. Strong tip: Adelaide by 20.
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
The Showdown. Adelaide 9–5, 3 straight wins. Port 4–10. Adelaide 4–1 in last 5 H2H. Strong tip: Adelaide by 15.
Brisbane Lions v Sydney
Defending premiers v the best record in the AFL. Squiggle split 17–12. 55.1% confidence. The Gabba factor tips it. Lean tip: Brisbane by 5.
Fremantle v Gold Coast
Fremantle 13–1, 6–0 at home. Gold Coast 1–5 away, 3 straight losses. Strong tip: Fremantle by 25.
North Melbourne v Essendon
Essendon 1–13, 0–7 away. North Melbourne 5–3 at home. R3 result: North by 12. Strong tip: North Melbourne by 20.
Collingwood v Richmond
Richmond 2–12, worst in the AFL. Collingwood 4–1 in H2H. 87.4% confidence. Strong tip: Collingwood by 35.
Hawthorn v GWS
Hawthorn 9–4, 6–1 at MCG. GWS 5–8, 1–6 away. Unanimous 29/29. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 20.
Carlton v West Coast
Carlton 5–0 in H2H, avg margin +70. West Coast 4–10. Squiggle 83.2% confidence. Strong tip: Carlton by 30.
GWS v Carlton
GWS 4–1 at home. Carlton 2–4 away. Unanimous 27/27 consensus. Strong tip: GWS by 15.
Richmond v North Melbourne
Richmond 2–11, worst in the AFL. North Melbourne 4–0 in H2H including 130–55 in R6. Strong tip: North Melbourne by 25.
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Bulldogs 4–1 in H2H with avg margin +58. But coming off a 57-point loss. The regression question returns. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
Collingwood 5–0 in the last 5 H2H. Port Adelaide 4–9, 2–4 away. Strong tip: Collingwood by 20.
Adelaide v Melbourne
Adelaide 4–9 but every model backs them. Melbourne 9–5 but 3–4 away. 28/28 Squiggle consensus for the Crows. Lean tip: Adelaide by 10.
Fremantle v Geelong
Fremantle 12–1. Geelong 1–4 away. The R1 rematch in Perth. The Dockers’ only loss was to this opponent. Strong tip: Fremantle by 15.
Gold Coast v Hawthorn
R7 reverse: Hawthorn won by 49 at home. Now they travel to the Gold Coast where the Suns are 5–1. H2H at this venue overwhelmingly favours the Suns. Lean tip: Hawthorn by 8.
Richmond v Brisbane Lions
Richmond 2–10. Brisbane the defending premiers. Four straight H2H wins to the Lions including 163–44 in 2024. 89.3% model confidence. Strong tip: Brisbane by 40.
St Kilda v Greater Western Sydney
GWS 4–1 at home, 1–5 away. St Kilda own the R2 result. H2H favours the Giants 4–2 but venue favours the Saints. Lean tip: St Kilda by 6.
North Melbourne v West Coast
Home team, away ground. North Melbourne are listed as home but play at Optus Stadium — where West Coast beat them by 17 ten weeks ago. Lean tip: North Melbourne by 8.
Port Adelaide v Sydney
The best team in the AFL travels to Adelaide. Sydney are 10–2, 7–0 at home, and scoring at will. Port are 4–8 and fading. Strong tip: Sydney by 20.
Melbourne v Essendon
Essendon’s 8-game losing streak meets their 3–2 H2H dominance. The form says Melbourne by 30. The history says be careful. Strong tip: Melbourne by 25.