Our Predictions
Every team, called. Projected progression, the Golden Boot shortlist and the dark horses we rate. We take stances here. Some of them will look silly by July. That is the game.
Prediction Scorecard
Picks
34/7049%
Record
34–36
Result calls
33/7246%
Exact scorelines
4/726%
1 push · 1 not gradable (excluded from hit rate)
| Match | Our pick | Predicted | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlgeriavAustria | Over 2.5 Goals | 2-1 | 3-3 | ✓ |
| JordanvArgentina | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | 1-3 | ✓ |
| DR CongovUzbekistan | Over 2.5 Goals | 2-1 | 3-1 | ✓ |
| ColombiavPortugal | Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.96 | 2-1 | 0-0 | ✗ |
| CroatiavGhana | Croatia Asian Handicap -0.5 (Croatia Win) | 2-0 | 2-1 | — |
| PanamavEngland | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | 0-2 | ✗ |
| New ZealandvBelgium | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | 1-5 | ✓ |
| EgyptvIran | Over 2.5 Goals | 2-1 | 1-1 | ✗ |
| UruguayvSpain | Spain -1 Asian Handicap | 2-0 | 0-1 | P |
| Cabo VerdevSaudi Arabia | Over 2.5 Goals | 2-1 | 0-0 | ✗ |
| SenegalvIraq | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | 5-0 | ✓ |
| NorwayvFrance | BTTS Yes | 2-1 | 1-4 | ✓ |
| ParaguayvAustralia | Australia Double Chance | 1-1 | 0-0 | ✓ |
| TürkiyevUnited States | Over 2.5 Goals | 2-1 | 3-2 | ✓ |
| TunisiavNetherlands | Netherlands -2.5 Asian Handicap | 4-0 | 1-3 | ✗ |
| JapanvSweden | Over 2.5 Goals | 2-1 | 1-1 | ✗ |
| CuraçaovCôte d'Ivoire | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | 0-2 | ✗ |
| EcuadorvGermany | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | 2-1 | ✓ |
| South AfricavKorea Republic | Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 | 2-1 | 1-0 | ✗ |
| CzechiavMexico | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-1 | 0-3 | ✗ |
| MoroccovHaiti | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-0 | 4-2 | ✓ |
| ScotlandvBrazil | Draw (Scotland +0.5 Asian Handicap) | 1-1 | 0-3 | ✗ |
| Bosnia and HerzegovinavQatar | Over 2.5 Goals | 2-1 | 3-1 | ✓ |
| SwitzerlandvCanada | BTTS Yes | 2-1 | 2-1 | ✓ |
| ColombiavDR Congo | Under 2.5 Goals | 2-0 | 1-0 | ✓ |
| PanamavCroatia | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 0-1 | ✓ |
| EnglandvGhana | Under 2.5 Goals | 2-0 | 0-0 | ✓ |
| PortugalvUzbekistan | Under 2.5 Goals | 2-0 | 5-0 | ✗ |
| JordanvAlgeria | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 1-2 | ✗ |
| NorwayvSenegal | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-1 | 3-2 | ✗ |
| FrancevIraq | Over 3.5 goals | 3-1 | 3-0 | ✗ |
| ArgentinavAustria | Under 2.5 Goals | 2-0 | 2-0 | ✓ |
| New ZealandvEgypt | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 1-3 | ✗ |
| UruguayvCabo Verde | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 2-2 | ✗ |
| BelgiumvIran | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 0-0 | ✓ |
| SpainvSaudi Arabia | Under 2.5 Goals | 2-0 | 4-0 | ✗ |
| TunisiavJapan | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 0-4 | ✗ |
| EcuadorvCuraçao | Under 3.5 goals | 2-0 | 0-0 | ✓ |
| GermanyvCôte d'Ivoire | Under 2.5 goals | 1-0 | 2-1 | ✗ |
| NetherlandsvSweden | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-1 | 5-1 | ✗ |
| TürkiyevParaguay | Under 2.5 goals | 1-0 | 0-1 | ✓ |
| BrazilvHaiti | Under 2.5 goals | 2-0 | 3-0 | ✗ |
| ScotlandvMorocco | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 0-1 | ✓ |
| United StatesvAustralia | Under 2.5 Goals | 2-0 | 2-0 | ✓ |
| MexicovKorea Republic | Korea Republic +0.5 (Asian Handicap) | 1-1 | 1-0 | ✗ |
| CanadavQatar | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 6-0 | ✗ |
| SwitzerlandvBosnia and Herzegovina | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 4-1 | ✗ |
| CzechiavSouth Africa | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 1-1 | ✓ |
| GhanavPanama | Over 2.5 Goals | 2-1 | 1-0 | ✗ |
| UzbekistanvColombia | Under 2.5 Goals | 0-1 | 1-3 | ✗ |
| EnglandvCroatia | Both Teams to Score — Yes | 1-1 | 4-2 | ✓ |
| PortugalvDR Congo | Over 2.5 Goals | 3-1 | 1-1 | ✗ |
| AustriavJordan | Under 2.5 Goals | 2-0 | 3-1 | ✗ |
| IraqvNorway | Draw | 1-1 | 1-4 | ✗ |
| ArgentinavAlgeria | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 3-0 | ✗ |
| FrancevSenegal | Under 2.5 goals | 1-0 | 3-1 | ✗ |
| IranvNew Zealand | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 2-2 | ✗ |
| Saudi ArabiavUruguay | Under 2.5 Goals | 0-0 | 1-1 | ✓ |
| SpainvCabo Verde | Spain -1.5 Asian Handicap | 3-0 | 0-0 | ✗ |
| BelgiumvEgypt | Egypt Double Chance | 0-1 | 1-1 | ✓ |
| SwedenvTunisia | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 5-1 | ✗ |
| Côte d'IvoirevEcuador | Under 2.5 Goals | 0-0 | 1-0 | ✓ |
| NetherlandsvJapan | Draw | 1-1 | 2-2 | ✓ |
| GermanyvCuraçao | Over 3.5 Goals | 4-0 | 7-1 | ✓ |
| AustraliavTürkiye | Under 2.5 Goals | 0-1 | 2-0 | ✓ |
| HaitivScotland | Scotland ML | 1-2 | 0-1 | ✓ |
| BrazilvMorocco | Both Teams to Score — Yes | 1-1 | 1-1 | ✓ |
| QatarvSwitzerland | Under 2.5 Goals | 0-2 | 1-1 | ✓ |
| United StatesvParaguay | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 4-1 | ✗ |
| CanadavBosnia and Herzegovina | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 1-1 | ✓ |
| Korea RepublicvCzechia | Czechia ML | 0-1 | 2-1 | ✗ |
| MexicovSouth Africa | Under 2.5 Goals | 1-0 | 2-0 | ✓ |
Tournament Predictions
Grading our pre-tournament calls — group finishes, advance/eliminate and Golden Boot per team — for the 12 groups that have finished of 12. Updates as more groups complete.
Group positions
35/4873%
exact
Advance / eliminate
28/3678%
12 TBD
Top scorers
2/1613%
32 teams still active
3rd-place teams stay TBD on advance/eliminate until the best-thirds tiebreak resolves. Top-scorer grades are finalised only when a team is knocked out — still-alive teams show ⏳ with the current leader. Counts goals + penalties; players tied for the team lead all count as an exact call.
Group Apos 1/4 · adv 1/3 · top 0/2
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Round of 16 | advanced | ✓ | Santiago Giménez(3)current: Julián Quiñones (2) | ⏳ |
| South Africa | 4 | 2 | ✗ | Group Stage | advanced | ✗ | Lyle Foster(1)current: Teboho Mokoena / Thapelo Maseko (1) | ⏳ |
| Korea Republic | 2 | 3 | ✗ | Round of 32 | TBD | · | Son Heung-min→Hwang In-beom / Oh Hyeon-gyu(1) | ✗ |
| Czechia | 3 | 4 | ✗ | Round of 32 | eliminated | ✗ | Patrik Schick→Ladislav Krejčí / Michal Sadilek(1) | ✗ |
Group Bpos 3/4 · adv 2/3 · top 0/1
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Group Stage | advanced | ✗ | Breel Embolo(3)current: Johan Manzambi (3) | ⏳ |
| Canada | 1 | 2 | ✗ | Round of 32 | advanced | ✓ | Jonathan David(3)current: Jonathan David (3) | ⏳ |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Group Stage | TBD | · | Edin Džeko(1)current: Ermin Mahmić (2) | ⏳ |
| Qatar | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Akram Afif→Hassan Al Haydos(1) | ✗ |
Group Cpos 4/4 · adv 2/3 · top 0/2
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Quarter-finals | advanced | ✓ | Vinícius Júnior(3)current: Vinícius Júnior (4) | ⏳ |
| Morocco | 2 | 2 | ✓ | Group Stage | advanced | ✗ | Brahim Díaz(3)current: Ismael Saibari (3) | ⏳ |
| Scotland | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Round of 32 | TBD | · | Scott McTominay→John McGinn(1) | ✗ |
| Haiti | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Duckens Nazon→Wilson Isidor(1) | ✗ |
Group Dpos 2/4 · adv 1/3 · top 0/1
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Group Stage | advanced | ✗ | Christian Pulisic(3)current: Folarin Balogun (2) | ⏳ |
| Australia | 3 | 2 | ✗ | Round of 32 | advanced | ✓ | Nestory Irankunda(1)current: Connor Metcalfe / Nestory Irankunda (1) | ⏳ |
| Paraguay | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Round of 32 | TBD | · | Miguel Almirón(2)current: Matías Galarza / Mauricio (1) | ⏳ |
| Türkiye | 2 | 4 | ✗ | Round of 16 | eliminated | ✗ | Kenan Yıldız→Arda Güler / Kaan Ayhan / Orkun Kökçü(1) | ✗ |
Group Epos 3/4 · adv 3/3 · top 0/1
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Quarter-finals | advanced | ✓ | Florian Wirtz(4)current: Deniz Undav (3) | ⏳ |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 2 | 2 | ✓ | Round of 32 | advanced | ✓ | Amad Diallo(2)current: Nicolas Pépé (2) | ⏳ |
| Ecuador | 2 | 3 | ✗ | Round of 16 | TBD | · | Enner Valencia(3)current: Gonzalo Plata / Nilson Angulo (1) | ⏳ |
| Curaçao | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Tahith Chong→Livano Comenencia(1) | ✗ |
Group Fpos 4/4 · adv 2/3 · top 0/1
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Quarter-finals | advanced | ✓ | Cody Gakpo(3)current: Brian Brobbey (3) | ⏳ |
| Japan | 2 | 2 | ✓ | Round of 16 | advanced | ✓ | Takefusa Kubo(2)current: Ayase Ueda / Daichi Kamada (2) | ⏳ |
| Sweden | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Round of 32 | TBD | · | Viktor Gyökeres(2)current: Anthony Elanga / Yasin Ayari (2) | ⏳ |
| Tunisia | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Round of 32 | eliminated | ✗ | Hannibal Mejbri→Hazem Mastouri / Omar Rekik(1) | ✗ |
Group Gpos 4/4 · adv 3/3 · top 0/2
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Round of 16 | advanced | ✓ | Kevin De Bruyne(3)current: Leandro Trossard (2) | ⏳ |
| Egypt | 2 | 2 | ✓ | Round of 32 | advanced | ✓ | Mohamed Salah(2)current: Emam Ashour / Mahmoud Saber / Mohamed Salah / Mostafa Zico / Trezeguet (1) | ⏳ |
| Iran | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Round of 32 | TBD | · | Mehdi Taremi→Ramin Rezaeian(2) | ✗ |
| New Zealand | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Chris Wood→Elijah Just(3) | ✗ |
Group Hpos 1/4 · adv 2/3 · top 0/2
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Semi-finals | advanced | ✓ | Dani Olmo(4)current: Mikel Oyarzabal (2) | ⏳ |
| Cabo Verde | 4 | 2 | ✗ | Group Stage | advanced | ✗ | Dailon Livramento(1)current: Hélio Varela / Kevin Pina (1) | ⏳ |
| Uruguay | 2 | 3 | ✗ | Round of 16 | TBD | · | Darwin Núñez→Agustín Canobbio / Maxi Araújo / Maximiliano Araújo(1) | ✗ |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 | 4 | ✗ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Firas Al-Buraikan→Abdulelah Al-Amri(1) | ✗ |
Group Ipos 3/4 · adv 3/3 · top 1/1
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Winners | advanced | ✓ | Kylian Mbappé(5)current: Kylian Mbappé / Ousmane Dembélé (4) | ⏳ |
| Norway | 3 | 2 | ✗ | Round of 32 | advanced | ✓ | Erling Haaland(3)current: Erling Haaland (4) | ⏳ |
| Senegal | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Round of 32 | TBD | · | Sadio Mané(2)current: Ismaïla Sarr (3) | ⏳ |
| Iraq | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Aymen Hussein→Aymen Hussein(1) | ✓ |
Group Jpos 4/4 · adv 3/3 · top 0/1
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Runner-up | advanced | ✓ | Lautaro Martínez(4)current: Lionel Messi (6) | ⏳ |
| Austria | 2 | 2 | ✓ | Round of 32 | advanced | ✓ | Marcel Sabitzer(2)current: Marko Arnautović (2) | ⏳ |
| Algeria | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Round of 32 | TBD | · | Mohamed Amine Amoura(2)current: Riyad Mahrez (2) | ⏳ |
| Jordan | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Musa Al-Taamari→Ali Olwan / Mousa Al-Tamari / Nizar Al Rashdan(1) | ✗ |
Group Kpos 2/4 · adv 3/3 · top 1/1
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia | 2 | 1 | ✗ | Round of 16 | advanced | ✓ | Luis Díaz(3)current: Daniel Muñoz (2) | ⏳ |
| Portugal | 1 | 2 | ✗ | Quarter-finals | advanced | ✓ | Bruno Fernandes(4)current: Cristiano Ronaldo (2) | ⏳ |
| DR Congo | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Round of 32 | TBD | · | Yoane Wissa(1)current: Yoane Wissa (3) | ⏳ |
| Uzbekistan | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Eldor Shomurodov→Abbosbek Fayzullaev / Eldor Shomurodov(1) | ✓ |
Group Lpos 4/4 · adv 3/3 · top 0/1
| Team | Pred | Actual | Pos | Pred exit | Status | Adv | Top scorer pred → actual | TS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 1 | 1 | ✓ | Semi-finals | advanced | ✓ | Harry Kane(5)current: Harry Kane (3) | ⏳ |
| Croatia | 2 | 2 | ✓ | Round of 16 | advanced | ✓ | Andrej Kramarić(2)current: Ante Budimir / Martin Baturina / Nikola Vlašić / Petar Musa / Petar Sučić (1) | ⏳ |
| Ghana | 3 | 3 | ✓ | Group Stage | TBD | · | Antoine Semenyo(1)current: Caleb Yirenkyi / Derrick Luckassen (1) | ⏳ |
| Panama | 4 | 4 | ✓ | Group Stage | eliminated | ✓ | Cecilio Waterman→— | ✗ |
Live Outright Odds
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Predicted Pathway
Winners
Runner-up
Quarter-finals
Round of 32
Golden Boot Shortlist
| 1 | Kylian Mbappé 🇫🇷 France | 5goals |
| 1 | Harry Kane 🏴 England | 5goals |
| 3 | Florian Wirtz 🇩🇪 Germany | 4goals |
| 3 | Dani Olmo 🇪🇸 Spain | 4goals |
| 3 | Lautaro Martínez 🇦🇷 Argentina | 4goals |
| 3 | Bruno Fernandes 🇵🇹 Portugal | 4goals |
| 7 | Son Heung-min 🇰🇷 Korea Republic | 3goals |
| 7 | Santiago Giménez 🇲🇽 Mexico | 3goals |
| 7 | Jonathan David 🇨🇦 Canada | 3goals |
| 7 | Breel Embolo 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 3goals |
| 7 | Brahim Díaz 🇲🇦 Morocco | 3goals |
| 7 | Vinícius Júnior 🇧🇷 Brazil | 3goals |
Dark Horse Rankings
All 48 Teams By Projected Exit
| Team | Grp | Projected exit | Outright |
|---|---|---|---|
| France | I | Winners | 5.00 |
| Argentina | J | Runner-up | 10.00 |
| Spain | H | Semi-finals | 5.75 |
| England | L | Semi-finals | 7.00 |
| Portugal | K | Quarter-finals | 8.00 |
| Brazil | C | Quarter-finals | 7.00 |
| Netherlands | F | Quarter-finals | 21.00 |
| Germany | E | Quarter-finals | 10.00 |
| Belgium | G | Round of 16 | 18.00 |
| Croatia | L | Round of 16 | 34.00 |
| Colombia | K | Round of 16 | 18.00 |
| Mexico | A | Round of 16 | 45.00 |
| Uruguay | H | Round of 16 | 26.00 |
| Japan | F | Round of 16 | 34.00 |
| Türkiye | D | Round of 16 | 51.00 |
| Ecuador | E | Round of 16 | 51.00 |
| Senegal | I | Round of 32 | 80.00 |
| Iran | G | Round of 32 | 250.00 |
| Austria | J | Round of 32 | 125.00 |
| Korea Republic | A | Round of 32 | 51.00 |
| Australia | D | Round of 32 | 150.00 |
| Algeria | J | Round of 32 | 201.00 |
| Egypt | G | Round of 32 | 150.00 |
| Canada | B | Round of 32 | 51.00 |
| Norway | I | Round of 32 | 26.00 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | E | Round of 32 | 51.00 |
| Sweden | F | Round of 32 | 150.00 |
| Paraguay | D | Round of 32 | 150.00 |
| Czechia | A | Round of 32 | 201.00 |
| Scotland | C | Round of 32 | 251.00 |
| Tunisia | F | Round of 32 | 501.00 |
| DR Congo | K | Round of 32 | 750.00 |
| Morocco | C | Group Stage | 18.00 |
| United States | D | Group Stage | 15.00 |
| Switzerland | B | Group Stage | 45.00 |
| Panama | L | Group Stage | 1000.00 |
| Uzbekistan | K | Group Stage | 5000.00 |
| Qatar | B | Group Stage | 1000.00 |
| Iraq | I | Group Stage | 1000.00 |
| South Africa | A | Group Stage | 250.00 |
| Saudi Arabia | H | Group Stage | 251.00 |
| Jordan | J | Group Stage | 1001.00 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | B | Group Stage | 200.00 |
| Cabo Verde | H | Group Stage | 1000.00 |
| Ghana | L | Group Stage | 201.00 |
| Curaçao | E | Group Stage | 5000.00 |
| Haiti | C | Group Stage | 2500.00 |
| New Zealand | G | Group Stage | 2000.00 |
Group-By-Group
Group A
- 1Mexico
- 2Korea Republic
- 3Czechia
- 4South Africa
Group B
- 1Canada
- 2Switzerland
- 3Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 4Qatar
Group C
- 1Brazil
- 2Morocco
- 3Scotland
- 4Haiti
Group D
- 1United States
- 2Türkiye
- 3Australia
- 4Paraguay
Group E
- 1Germany
- 2Côte d'Ivoire
- 3Ecuador
- 4Curaçao
Group F
- 1Netherlands
- 2Japan
- 3Sweden
- 4Tunisia
Group G
- 1Belgium
- 2Egypt
- 3Iran
- 4New Zealand
Group H
- 1Spain
- 2Uruguay
- 3Saudi Arabia
- 4Cabo Verde
Group I
- 1France
- 2Norway
- 3Senegal
- 4Iraq
Group J
- 1Argentina
- 2Austria
- 3Algeria
- 4Jordan
Group K
- 1Portugal
- 2Colombia
- 3DR Congo
- 4Uzbekistan
Group L
- 1England
- 2Croatia
- 3Ghana
- 4Panama
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