Our Predictions

The tournament is done and so is the grading. Every stance we took before a ball was kicked — projected progression, the Golden Boot shortlist, the dark horses — scored against what actually happened. Some calls landed, some look silly. That was always the deal.

Prediction Scorecard

Picks
51/9952%
Record
51–48
Result calls
49/10447%
Exact scorelines
8/1048%

5 push (excluded from hit rate)

MatchOur pickPredictedResultPick
SpainvArgentinaUnder 2.5 goals1-01-0✓
FrancevEnglandOver 2.5 goals2-14-6✓
EnglandvArgentinaUnder 2.5 goals1-01-2✗
FrancevSpainUnder 2.5 Goals1-00-2✓
ArgentinavSwitzerlandArgentina to Win (1X2)2-03-1✓
NorwayvEnglandUnder 2.5 Goals1-11-2✗
SpainvBelgiumSpain -1 Asian Handicap2-02-1P
FrancevMoroccoUnder 2.5 goals2-02-0✓
SwitzerlandvColombiaSwitzerland Draw No Bet2-10-0P
ArgentinavEgyptUnder 2.5 Goals2-03-2✗
United StatesvBelgiumUnder 2.5 Goals1-11-4✗
PortugalvSpainUnder 2.5 Goals1-00-1✓
MexicovEnglandUnder 2.5 Goals1-02-3✗
BrazilvNorwayOver 2.5 Goals2-11-2✓
CanadavMoroccoUnder 2.5 goals1-00-3✗
ParaguayvFranceUnder 2.5 Goals2-00-1✓
AustraliavEgyptUnder 2.5 Goals1-01-1✓
ColombiavGhanaColombia -1 Asian Handicap2-01-0P
ArgentinavCabo VerdeArgentina -1.5 Asian Handicap3-03-2✗
SwitzerlandvAlgeriaUnder 2.5 Goals1-02-0✓
SpainvAustriaUnder 2.5 goals2-03-0✗
PortugalvCroatiaOver 2.5 Goals2-12-1✓
BelgiumvSenegalBelgium -1 Asian Handicap2-03-2P
United StatesvBosnia and HerzegovinaUnder 2.5 goals2-02-0✓
EnglandvDR CongoUnder 2.5 goals2-02-1✗
MexicovEcuadorUnder 2.5 Goals1-02-0✓
Côte d'IvoirevNorwayCôte d'Ivoire Draw No Bet1-11-2✗
FrancevSwedenOver 2.5 goals3-13-0✓
BrazilvJapanUnder 2.5 Goals2-02-1✗
NetherlandsvMoroccoUnder 2.5 Goals1-01-1✓
GermanyvParaguayGermany -1.5 Asian Handicap3-01-1✗
South AfricavCanadaUnder 2.5 Goals1-00-1✓
AlgeriavAustriaOver 2.5 Goals2-13-3✓
JordanvArgentinaOver 2.5 Goals3-11-3✓
DR CongovUzbekistanOver 2.5 Goals2-13-1✓
ColombiavPortugalOver 2.5 Goals @ 1.962-10-0✗
CroatiavGhanaCroatia Asian Handicap -0.5 (Croatia Win)2-02-1✓
PanamavEnglandOver 2.5 Goals3-10-2✗
New ZealandvBelgiumOver 2.5 Goals3-11-5✓
EgyptvIranOver 2.5 Goals2-11-1✗
UruguayvSpainSpain -1 Asian Handicap2-00-1P
Cabo VerdevSaudi ArabiaOver 2.5 Goals2-10-0✗
SenegalvIraqOver 2.5 Goals3-15-0✓
NorwayvFranceBTTS Yes2-11-4✓
ParaguayvAustraliaAustralia Double Chance1-10-0✓
TürkiyevUnited StatesOver 2.5 Goals2-13-2✓
TunisiavNetherlandsNetherlands -2.5 Asian Handicap4-01-3✗
JapanvSwedenOver 2.5 Goals2-11-1✗
CuraçaovCôte d'IvoireOver 2.5 Goals3-10-2✗
EcuadorvGermanyOver 2.5 Goals3-12-1✓
South AfricavKorea RepublicOver 2.5 Goals @ 2.152-11-0✗
CzechiavMexicoUnder 2.5 Goals1-10-3✗
MoroccovHaitiOver 2.5 Goals3-04-2✓
ScotlandvBrazilDraw (Scotland +0.5 Asian Handicap)1-10-3✗
Bosnia and HerzegovinavQatarOver 2.5 Goals2-13-1✓
SwitzerlandvCanadaBTTS Yes2-12-1✓
ColombiavDR CongoUnder 2.5 Goals2-01-0✓
PanamavCroatiaUnder 2.5 Goals1-00-1✓
EnglandvGhanaUnder 2.5 Goals2-00-0✓
PortugalvUzbekistanUnder 2.5 Goals2-05-0✗
JordanvAlgeriaUnder 2.5 Goals1-01-2✗
NorwayvSenegalUnder 2.5 Goals1-13-2✗
FrancevIraqOver 3.5 goals3-13-0✗
ArgentinavAustriaUnder 2.5 Goals2-02-0✓
New ZealandvEgyptUnder 2.5 Goals1-01-3✗
UruguayvCabo VerdeUnder 2.5 Goals1-02-2✗
BelgiumvIranUnder 2.5 Goals1-00-0✓
SpainvSaudi ArabiaUnder 2.5 Goals2-04-0✗
TunisiavJapanUnder 2.5 Goals1-00-4✗
EcuadorvCuraçaoUnder 3.5 goals2-00-0✓
GermanyvCôte d'IvoireUnder 2.5 goals1-02-1✗
NetherlandsvSwedenUnder 2.5 Goals1-15-1✗
TürkiyevParaguayUnder 2.5 goals1-00-1✓
BrazilvHaitiUnder 2.5 goals2-03-0✗
ScotlandvMoroccoUnder 2.5 Goals1-00-1✓
United StatesvAustraliaUnder 2.5 Goals2-02-0✓
MexicovKorea RepublicKorea Republic +0.5 (Asian Handicap)1-11-0✗
CanadavQatarUnder 2.5 Goals1-06-0✗
SwitzerlandvBosnia and HerzegovinaUnder 2.5 Goals1-04-1✗
CzechiavSouth AfricaUnder 2.5 Goals1-01-1✓
GhanavPanamaOver 2.5 Goals2-11-0✗
UzbekistanvColombiaUnder 2.5 Goals0-11-3✗
EnglandvCroatiaBoth Teams to Score — Yes1-14-2✓
PortugalvDR CongoOver 2.5 Goals3-11-1✗
AustriavJordanUnder 2.5 Goals2-03-1✗
IraqvNorwayDraw1-11-4✗
ArgentinavAlgeriaUnder 2.5 Goals1-03-0✗
FrancevSenegalUnder 2.5 goals1-03-1✗
IranvNew ZealandUnder 2.5 Goals1-02-2✗
Saudi ArabiavUruguayUnder 2.5 Goals0-01-1✓
SpainvCabo VerdeSpain -1.5 Asian Handicap3-00-0✗
BelgiumvEgyptEgypt Double Chance0-11-1✓
SwedenvTunisiaUnder 2.5 Goals1-05-1✗
Côte d'IvoirevEcuadorUnder 2.5 Goals0-01-0✓
NetherlandsvJapanDraw1-12-2✓
GermanyvCuraçaoOver 3.5 Goals4-07-1✓
AustraliavTürkiyeUnder 2.5 Goals0-12-0✓
HaitivScotlandScotland ML1-20-1✓
BrazilvMoroccoBoth Teams to Score — Yes1-11-1✓
QatarvSwitzerlandUnder 2.5 Goals0-21-1✓
United StatesvParaguayUnder 2.5 Goals1-04-1✗
CanadavBosnia and HerzegovinaUnder 2.5 Goals1-01-1✓
Korea RepublicvCzechiaCzechia ML0-12-1✗
MexicovSouth AfricaUnder 2.5 Goals1-02-0✓

Tournament Predictions

Final grades for our pre-tournament calls — group finishes, advance/eliminate and Golden Boot per team — across all 12 groups. The tournament is complete; nothing below will change.

Group positions
35/4873%
exact
Advance / eliminate
34/4871%
correct
Top scorers
10/4821%
exact

Counts goals + penalties; players tied for the team lead all count as an exact call.

Group Apos 1/4 · adv 1/4 · top 0/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Mexico11✓Round of 16advanced✓Santiago Giménez→Julián Quiñones(4)✗
South Africa42✗Group Stageadvanced✗Lyle Foster→Teboho Mokoena / Thapelo Maseko(1)✗
Korea Republic23✗Round of 32eliminated✗Son Heung-min→Hwang In-beom / Oh Hyeon-gyu(1)✗
Czechia34✗Round of 32eliminated✗Patrik Schick→Ladislav Krejčí / Michal Sadilek(1)✗
Group Bpos 3/4 · adv 2/4 · top 1/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Switzerland11✓Group Stageadvanced✗Breel Embolo→Johan Manzambi(3)~
Canada12✗Round of 32advanced✓Jonathan David→Jonathan David(3)✓
Bosnia and Herzegovina33✓Group Stageadvanced✗Edin Džeko→Ermin Mahmić(2)✗
Qatar44✓Group Stageeliminated✓Akram Afif→Hassan Al Haydos(1)✗
Group Cpos 4/4 · adv 2/4 · top 1/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Brazil11✓Quarter-finalsadvanced✓Vinícius Júnior→Vinícius Júnior(4)✓
Morocco22✓Group Stageadvanced✗Brahim Díaz→Ismael Saibari(3)✗
Scotland33✓Round of 32eliminated✗Scott McTominay→John McGinn(1)✗
Haiti44✓Group Stageeliminated✓Duckens Nazon→Wilson Isidor(1)✗
Group Dpos 2/4 · adv 2/4 · top 1/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
United States11✓Group Stageadvanced✗Christian Pulisic→Folarin Balogun(3)✗
Australia32✗Round of 32advanced✓Nestory Irankunda→Connor Metcalfe / Nestory Irankunda(1)✓
Paraguay33✓Round of 32advanced✓Miguel Almirón→Julio Enciso / Matías Galarza / Mauricio(1)✗
Türkiye24✗Round of 16eliminated✗Kenan Yıldız→Arda Güler / Kaan Ayhan / Orkun Kökçü(1)✗
Group Epos 3/4 · adv 4/4 · top 1/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Germany11✓Quarter-finalsadvanced✓Florian Wirtz→Deniz Undav / Kai Havertz(3)✗
Côte d'Ivoire22✓Round of 32advanced✓Amad Diallo→Amad Diallo / Nicolas Pépé(2)✓
Ecuador23✗Round of 16advanced✓Enner Valencia→Gonzalo Plata / Nilson Angulo(1)✗
Curaçao44✓Group Stageeliminated✓Tahith Chong→Livano Comenencia(1)✗
Group Fpos 4/4 · adv 3/4 · top 1/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Netherlands11✓Quarter-finalsadvanced✓Cody Gakpo→Brian Brobbey / Cody Gakpo(3)✓
Japan22✓Round of 16advanced✓Takefusa Kubo→Ayase Ueda / Daichi Kamada(2)✗
Sweden33✓Round of 32advanced✓Viktor Gyökeres→Anthony Elanga / Yasin Ayari(2)~
Tunisia44✓Round of 32eliminated✗Hannibal Mejbri→Hazem Mastouri / Omar Rekik(1)✗
Group Gpos 4/4 · adv 3/4 · top 0/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Belgium11✓Round of 16advanced✓Kevin De Bruyne→Charles De Ketelaere / Romelu Lukaku(3)~
Egypt22✓Round of 32advanced✓Mohamed Salah→Emam Ashour / Mostafa Zico(2)~
Iran33✓Round of 32eliminated✗Mehdi Taremi→Ramin Rezaeian(2)✗
New Zealand44✓Group Stageeliminated✓Chris Wood→Elijah Just(3)✗
Group Hpos 1/4 · adv 2/4 · top 0/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Spain11✓Semi-finalsadvanced✓Dani Olmo→Mikel Oyarzabal(5)✗
Cabo Verde42✗Group Stageadvanced✗Dailon Livramento→Deroy Duarte / Hélio Varela / Kevin Pina / Sidny Lopes Cabral(1)✗
Uruguay23✗Round of 16eliminated✗Darwin Núñez→Agustín Canobbio / Maxi Araújo / Maximiliano Araújo(1)✗
Saudi Arabia34✗Group Stageeliminated✓Firas Al-Buraikan→Abdulelah Al-Amri(1)✗
Group Ipos 3/4 · adv 4/4 · top 3/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
France11✓Winnersadvanced✓Kylian Mbappé→Kylian Mbappé(10)✓
Norway32✗Round of 32advanced✓Erling Haaland→Erling Haaland(7)✓
Senegal33✓Round of 32advanced✓Sadio Mané→Ismaïla Sarr(4)✗
Iraq44✓Group Stageeliminated✓Aymen Hussein→Aymen Hussein(1)✓
Group Jpos 4/4 · adv 4/4 · top 0/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Argentina11✓Runner-upadvanced✓Lautaro Martínez→Lionel Messi(8)~
Austria22✓Round of 32advanced✓Marcel Sabitzer→Marko Arnautović(2)~
Algeria33✓Round of 32advanced✓Mohamed Amine Amoura→Riyad Mahrez(2)✗
Jordan44✓Group Stageeliminated✓Musa Al-Taamari→Ali Olwan / Mousa Al-Tamari / Nizar Al Rashdan(1)✗
Group Kpos 2/4 · adv 4/4 · top 2/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
Colombia21✗Round of 16advanced✓Luis Díaz→Daniel Muñoz(2)~
Portugal12✗Quarter-finalsadvanced✓Bruno Fernandes→Cristiano Ronaldo(3)✗
DR Congo33✓Round of 32advanced✓Yoane Wissa→Yoane Wissa(3)✓
Uzbekistan44✓Group Stageeliminated✓Eldor Shomurodov→Abbosbek Fayzullaev / Eldor Shomurodov(1)✓
Group Lpos 4/4 · adv 3/4 · top 0/4
TeamPredActualPosPred exitStatusAdvTop scorer pred → actualTS
England11✓Semi-finalsadvanced✓Harry Kane→Jude Bellingham(7)~
Croatia22✓Round of 16advanced✓Andrej Kramarić→Ante Budimir / Ivan Perišić / Martin Baturina / Nikola Vlašić / Petar Musa / Petar Sučić(1)✗
Ghana33✓Group Stageadvanced✗Antoine Semenyo→Caleb Yirenkyi / Derrick Luckassen(1)✗
Panama44✓Group Stageeliminated✓Cecilio Waterman→—✗

Predicted Pathway

Golden Boot Shortlist

1Kylian Mbappé
🇫🇷 France
5goals
1Harry Kane
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
5goals
3Florian Wirtz
🇩🇪 Germany
4goals
3Dani Olmo
🇪🇸 Spain
4goals
3Lautaro Martínez
🇦🇷 Argentina
4goals
3Bruno Fernandes
🇵🇹 Portugal
4goals
7Son Heung-min
🇰🇷 Korea Republic
3goals
7Santiago Giménez
🇲🇽 Mexico
3goals
7Jonathan David
🇨🇦 Canada
3goals
7Breel Embolo
🇨🇭 Switzerland
3goals
7Brahim Díaz
🇲🇦 Morocco
3goals
7Vinícius Júnior
🇧🇷 Brazil
3goals

Dark Horse Rankings

All 48 Teams By Projected Exit

TeamGrpProjected exitOutright
FranceIWinners5.00
ArgentinaJRunner-up10.00
SpainHSemi-finals5.75
EnglandLSemi-finals7.00
PortugalKQuarter-finals8.00
BrazilCQuarter-finals7.00
NetherlandsFQuarter-finals21.00
GermanyEQuarter-finals10.00
BelgiumGRound of 1618.00
CroatiaLRound of 1634.00
ColombiaKRound of 1618.00
MexicoARound of 1645.00
UruguayHRound of 1626.00
JapanFRound of 1634.00
TürkiyeDRound of 1651.00
EcuadorERound of 1651.00
SenegalIRound of 3280.00
IranGRound of 32250.00
AustriaJRound of 32125.00
Korea RepublicARound of 3251.00
AustraliaDRound of 32150.00
AlgeriaJRound of 32201.00
EgyptGRound of 32150.00
CanadaBRound of 3251.00
NorwayIRound of 3226.00
Côte d'IvoireERound of 3251.00
SwedenFRound of 32150.00
ParaguayDRound of 32150.00
CzechiaARound of 32201.00
ScotlandCRound of 32251.00
TunisiaFRound of 32501.00
DR CongoKRound of 32750.00
MoroccoCGroup Stage18.00
United StatesDGroup Stage15.00
SwitzerlandBGroup Stage45.00
PanamaLGroup Stage1000.00
UzbekistanKGroup Stage5000.00
QatarBGroup Stage1000.00
IraqIGroup Stage1000.00
South AfricaAGroup Stage250.00
Saudi ArabiaHGroup Stage251.00
JordanJGroup Stage1001.00
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBGroup Stage200.00
Cabo VerdeHGroup Stage1000.00
GhanaLGroup Stage201.00
CuraçaoEGroup Stage5000.00
HaitiCGroup Stage2500.00
New ZealandGGroup Stage2000.00

Group-By-Group

This content is for information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a guarantee of success. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. Read our responsible gambling policy.