Titans v Bulldogs
Bulldogs 4-1 H2H. Cbus venue bogey (3-10 historical). Squads identical at -5.5 ±/G. Lean tip: Bulldogs.
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Broncos v Roosters
Both Broncos halves out. Roosters 4-1 H2H. Squad ±/G gap +9.0. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.
Raiders v Dragons
Dragons 14% at GIO (worst venue bogey in the NRL). Raiders 4-1 H2H. PCS gap +49.5. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.
Bulldogs v Sea Eagles
Sea Eagles 4-1 H2H. Tom Trbojevic returns. Squad ±/G gap +13.9 per game. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 8.
Storm v Raiders
AAMI Park 79% Storm fortress. But Raiders lead H2H 3-2 and CI/DS -3.1 favours the visitors. Lean Storm by 8.
Titans v Panthers
Panthers 5-0 H2H streak. 71% at Cbus. ELO gap 377. Cleary, To'o, Yeo on reserves. Strong tip: Panthers by 20.
Warriors v Cowboys
Warriors 4-game H2H streak. Mt Smart fortress 59%. Cowboys at 82% best-17 with Origin returners. Lean Warriors.
Wests Tigers v Dolphins
Dolphins DS 13.2 with Katoa, Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo out — but the named Dolphins squad is still +18 ±/G clear of the Tigers. Strong tip: Dolphins by 10.
Roosters v Sharks
Full Roosters Origin contingent returns. Both teams 94% best-17. Sharks lead H2H 3-2. Predict margin +2.4 — Lean Roosters.
Knights v Dragons
Largest squad PCS gap of the round. Dragons 1-12 with worst ±/G in the NRL. Strong tip: Knights by 17.
Wests Tigers v Titans
Tigers 82% best-17 vs Titans 65%. Leichhardt fortress 62%. ELO gap 77 points. Predict +8.4 Tigers. Lean Wests Tigers.
Warriors v Sharks
Both teams Origin-depleted. Warriors CI/DS edge +3.6. Sharks 64% at Go Media. Market shorter than model at $1.37. Lean Warriors.
Eels v Raiders
Eels ±/G -9.5, all 13 starters negative. Raiders H2H 4-1 streak. Predict -5.0 Raiders. Lean Raiders despite poor CommBank record (33%).
Eels v Raiders
Dolphins v Roosters
JMK (+20.5) and Bostock (+22.0) lead a quality Dolphins 13. Roosters backline posts three negative starters and two unknowns. Strong tip: Dolphins by 12.
Rabbitohs v Broncos
Broncos at 53% Best 17 — Walsh, Staggs, Haas and Carrigan all out. Squad PCS gap of +40.1. Strong tip: Rabbitohs by 10.
Bulldogs v Eels
A battle between two struggling sides. The signal here is disruption — the Eels are still missing both halves, their best prop, and a starting centre. CI/DS +3.7 is the clearest indicator in this match.
Broncos v Titans
The Queensland derby — and a mismatch. Broncos have won 3 straight against the Titans, who are 2-9 and win just 32% at Suncorp.
Wests Tigers v Panthers
The most lopsided match of the round. Panthers are 12-1, top of the ladder, return four Origin stars, and have a squad ±/G of +12.8 — the best in the NRL by a wide margin.
Cowboys v Dolphins
A genuine top-eight clash in Townsville — and we're tipping the away team. Dolphins are 100% at QCB Stadium (3-0, avg +22), near full strength, and have the Cowboys on short rest without Dearden.
Sharks v Dragons
The biggest predicted margin of the round. Sharks 80% at Shark Park, H2H 4-1, facing a Dragons side that is 1-12 with the worst ±/G in the competition.
Raiders v Roosters
A Lean tip against the grain. The model likes the Roosters — but H2H 4-1, a 38% Roosters record at GIO, and a hangover from last week's 4-18 loss in Melbourne all point one way.
Storm v Knights
AAMI Park — the most dominant home fortress in the NRL. The Knights have won just 2 of 16 visits. Every structural factor points Melbourne's way.
Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs
Brookvale fortress against a Rabbitohs side returning three Origin players but still missing their best. The numbers point one way.