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Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Fremantle 17–2, 9–0 at home. Bulldogs 10–8. H2H Freo 4–1. Strong tip: Fremantle by 15.

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Bulldogs v Warriors

Canterbury own a three-game head-to-head streak, but the Warriors lead on ELO (+133), CI/DS (+3.5) and bench PCS (42.6 v 10.7). The 42% Accor record is the risk. Lean tip: Warriors by 9.

North Melbourne v St Kilda

St Kilda 5–0 in H2H. North on 3 straight losses. Squiggle 29/30 Saints. Strong tip: St Kilda by 12.

Carlton v Gold Coast

Carlton 9–8, 5-game home streak. Gold Coast 8–9, 1–7 away. 23/27 consensus. Strong tip: Carlton by 10.

Western Bulldogs v Richmond

Bulldogs 9–8. Richmond 2–15, worst in AFL. Unanimous 81.3%. Strong tip: Bulldogs by 30.

Melbourne v Geelong

Melbourne 8–1 at MCG. Geelong 10–0 at home but 2–5 away. Squiggle 18–9. Lean tip: Melbourne by 6.

Eels v Panthers

Five straight Panthers wins, a 22.5-point squad-average gap and a -24.6 PCS deficit for the Eels. The losing streak is real but the class gap is vast. Strong tip: Panthers by 18.

Raiders v Wests Tigers

Canberra are middling, but the Tigers have named a bottom-tier sheet at -10.7 squad ±/G. Edge Engine +3 Lean Home, model margin +15.4. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.

Rabbitohs v Storm

The model says coin flip, but the Storm are at 59% Best 17 with Wishart and Toelau in the halves. With both sides disrupted, the CI/DS ledger (+3.3 Souths) breaks the tie. Lean tip: Rabbitohs.

Hawthorn v Essendon

Hawthorn 13–4, 8–1 at home. Essendon 4–14, 0–9 away. Unanimous. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 25.

Fremantle v West Coast

Western Derby. Fremantle 16–2, 8–0 at home. West Coast 5–13, 1–8 away. Strong tip: Fremantle by 35.

Adelaide v Collingwood

Adelaide 13–5, 6 straight wins, 8–2 at home. Collingwood 7–10, 3–5 away. Strong tip: Adelaide by 12.

Sea Eagles v Sharks

Four straight to the Sharks, the round's widest PCS gap (+49.1) and Cronulla at 94% Best 17. Brookvale is a 63% Manly fortress, but the class gap is decisive. Strong tip: Sharks by 4.

Cowboys v Broncos

The Broncos own the H2H (4-1) and a 67% record in Townsville, but the model likes the Cowboys by 5.5 with a +11.7 PCS edge. CI/DS is level. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.

Dragons v Titans

A coin-flip model line (Titans -0.9) between two strugglers. The Dragons' 64% Jubilee record, a 3-2 recent H2H and a +3.2 CI/DS edge tip a thin lean home. Lean tip: Dragons.

Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide

Brisbane 11–6 at the Gabba. Port Adelaide 5–12, 2–6 away. Unanimous 74.8%. Strong tip: Brisbane by 25.

Knights v Roosters

Five straight to the Roosters, 75% for the visitors at McDonald Jones and a +10.0 model margin. The squads are close but the trends are one-way. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.

Titans v Sea Eagles

The edge model's strongest away signal of the round: Manly wins 62% at Cbus, the Titans just 43% at home. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 14.

Raiders v Rabbitohs

Five straight to Canberra in the fixture, but the model calls it a coin flip and the squad numbers favour Souths. Lean tip: Raiders by 2.

Roosters v Storm

The Storm arrive without Munster and Hughes; the Roosters without Tedesco. The disruption ledger favours the home side. Lean tip: Roosters by 6.

Bulldogs v Wests Tigers

Two struggling sides, but the Tigers' 37% record at Accor and Koroisau's demotion to the reserves tip it. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.

Sharks v Knights

Fresh off a 66-0 statement, the Sharks return to their 83% fortress against a Knights side losing two forwards. Strong tip: Sharks by 12.